Netflix (NFLX) official guidance

We are still growing our ads business over 80% this year.

We continue to expect an annual cash content spend to amortization ratio of ~1.1x.

We have adjusted our expected 2026 FCF forecast to approximately $12.0B (vs. our prior projection of $12.5B) due primarily to the expected closing of a real estate transaction in Q4.

Our forecast implies annual operating income growth of 20%+ for 2026.

We anticipate an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026 (31.4% based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2026) vs. 29.5% in 2025.

We project a Q4 operating margin of 26.0% which includes ~120 basis points negative impact associated with our recently announced headcount reductions, and compares with 24.5% in the year ago quarter.

We anticipate an operating margin of 31.5% for 2026 (31.4% based on F/X rates as of January 1, 2026) vs. 29.5% in 2025.

This is 0.2% below the mid-point of our prior 2026 revenue forecast range - while subscription revenue growth has outperformed our expectations, we currently expect 2026 ad revenue of ~$2.7B vs. approximately $3B previously (due to slightly slower than expected rollout of some ad product capabilities).

Our guidance for Q4 means that for the full year 2026 we expect revenue of $51.1B, or growth of 13% (+12% on a F/X neutral basis).

In Q4, we expect revenue of $13.4 billion, which represents year over year growth of 12% (or 11% F/X neutral) driven by growth in memberships, pricing, and ad revenue.

Live, we expect, will be 5% of our content budget this year, but we think that'll only be 1% of view hours.

We're forecasting content expense up about 10% this year.

That's roughly 12% FX neutral, or about $6 billion of incremental revenue year-over-year.

We expect to deliver another strong year with, as you see in the guide, 13%-14% top-line growth for the full year.

We're guiding, as you say, to 12% revenue growth in Q3 reported, 11% FX neutral.

That's roughly 12% FX neutral, or about $6 billion of incremental revenue year-over-year.

We're guiding, as you say, to 12% revenue growth in Q3 reported, 11% FX neutral.

If you compare that to another content category, take animation series, kids' family TV, it's also about 5% of our content spend, the same amount of spend, but it's going to drive, we expect, 8% of view hours.

Live, we expect, will be 5% of our content budget this year, but we think that'll only be 1% of view hours.

Given that, we are maintaining our guidance, our strong outlook for organic growth that we established for 2026. That's revenue growth of 12%-14%, operating margin at 31.5%.