Apollo Global Management (APO) official guidance

As we head into the back half of 2026, we expect Athene will continue performing as expected, and we are maintaining our full-year target of 10% SRE growth, assuming an 11% ALT return.

With a total of $42 billion in the first half, Athene remains on pace to achieve our $85 billion target for the full year and continues to cement its position as the leading retirement services platform.

We're right on track for the year. $42 billion for the half, $85 billion for the full year. That's what we expect to hit. We've messaged through cycle over a five-year period, $85 billion. Just use that as an anchor point for next year.

Importantly, forward earnings indicators, including our capital formation and origination pipelines, committed capital not yet earning management fees, and signed originations with future syndication fees, are all very strong and continue to build, providing confidence that we'll hit our 20%+ FRE growth outlook for the year, as well as establishing embedded momentum for 2027.

Year-to-date margin expansion of about 90 basis points is tracking in line with our baseline expectation of roughly 100 basis points for the full year 2026.

Supported by these strong trends, we expect our institutional business to deliver a record fundraising year.

As we head into the back half of 2026, we expect Athene will continue performing as expected, and we are maintaining our full-year target of 10% SRE growth, assuming an 11% ALT return.

Adjusting to our 11% long-term return expectation on the alternatives portfolio, net spread would have been 10 basis points higher and in line with our previously communicated full-year outlook of 120-125 basis points.

As Jim said or I said earlier, we're $11 billion at Athene invested in AMAPS right now. We'll be 2x that by the end of the year, that will in part be making up for CLO runoff, part will be growth of the book.

Recall that New Markets, which was a very small contributor to volume in 2025, less than $1 billion. We expect to be north of $5 billion this year and ultimately to make up as much as half of Athene's new business.

2025, as you know, was a record year with $82 billion of organic origination, and we expect and plan to do more of that in 2026.

Based on the pipeline we see, I expect origination in Q2 to be even stronger.

On the revenue outlook, we expect Athora's PIC acquisition to begin contributing in the second quarter at an annualized rate of approximately 20 basis points initially.

Compensation cost growth will reflect investments in the build-out to support the six markets and further senior hires in specific areas as well as a full year of comp costs associated with Bridge, in sum growing at a high-teens growth rate.

The remaining 25% of top-line growth we expect to come from newer initiatives such as Apollo Sports Capital and Athora's pending acquisition of PIC.

As we previously communicated, we expect FRE to grow by 20+% with 75% of the revenue contribution coming from well-established core businesses such as asset-backed finance, direct lending, multi-credit, and hybrid, as well as the annualization of growth already in the ground.

Specific to FRE expenses, we expect low double-digit growth in non-comp costs inclusive of a full year of Bridge.

For SRE, we anticipate 10% growth assuming an 11% alts return or approximately $3.85 billion in 2026.

We expect 10% SRE growth in 2026, and we reaffirm the 10% growth on average through 2029, assuming we do what we're supposed to do in the alternatives.

For the fourth quarter, as Marc suggested, we anticipate SRE ex notables to be approximately stable to Q3 at an 11% alt return or approximately $880 million with an equivalent SRE spread of 125 basis points.