Arch Capital Group (ACGL) official guidance

The premium growth we saw this quarter was stronger than the underlying trend for the year. Year to date, adjusting for the planned reduction in middle market commercial program business, gross premiums written increased 4.2% and net premiums written increased 1.6% compared to the first nine months of last year. This low single-digit underlying growth is consistent with our expectation given current market condition.

But no question that the business is still priced very, we think at a very attractive level. There's inherent risk in that business. We get it. We understand it, and Nicolas touched on it. We're doing it carefully, but in terms of the amount of premium that we expect to write in the fourth quarter, I would expect a similar amount.

For us, I wouldn't expect anything material in the fourth quarter on that.

CAT load going forward, we quoted the 68% on an annual basis for the group. That hasn't changed.

As a result of the debt raise, we expect our interest expense to be approximately $60 million-$63 million for each of the next two quarters.

As a result of the debt raise, we expect our interest expense to be approximately $60 million-$63 million for each of the next two quarters.

As mentioned last quarter, we would expect our operating expense ratio to revert back to historical levels during the second half of the year.

You know, we do expect more losses to come through in the second quarter.

These non-renewals are expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026.

For 2026, our current estimate of the full-year catastrophe losses stands within a range of 7%-8% of overall net earned premium, similar to the estimate we disclosed last year.

And two, our corporate expenses should also be reduced from their run-rate levels and be approximately between $80-$90 million in 2026.

As we look ahead to 2026, we would expect our annualized effective tax rate to return to the 16%-18% range for the full year.

One, for the reinsurance segment, we would expect our operating expense ratio to benefit, resulting in a full-year 2026 operating expense ratio between 3.9%-4.5%.

The segment remains on pace to deliver approximately $1 billion of underwriting income for the year and is a steady diversifying contributor to Arch's earnings.