Federal Reserve's September dot plot projects one more 2026 hike and a 3.6% rate at end-2029
On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections showed 12 of 18 officials expecting one more 25-basis-point hike in 2026, four expecting two, and two expecting no additional hikes. Median fed-funds-rate projections rose to 4.1% at end-2026, 4.1% at end-2027, and 3.9% at end-2028, from June's 3.8%, 3.6%, and 3.4%, respectively; the end-2029 median was 3.6%, and the longer-run estimate rose to 3.2% from 3.1%.
Direct reports from x_posts 26647 and telegram_messages 37414 provide the September Summary of Economic Projections counts and rate medians; YouTube source 6858 separately corroborates the increase in the longer-run estimate. This is a concrete, forward-looking monetary-policy update rather than market-performance commentary, warranting high importance because it affects the expected path of U.S. rates and a broad set of rate-sensitive assets. The meeting’s 25-basis-point move was widely anticipated, while the higher-for-longer projection shift was meaningful but not an extreme surprise, so the surprise score is moderate. The occurrence timestamp is set to 18:00 UTC, corresponding to the scheduled 2:00 p.m. ET FOMC release, rather than the later posting times. Approved stakeholders are limited to public companies with clear U.S.-rate exposure through refinancing costs, discount rates, asset yields, or reinvestment income; weaker second-order housing/materials and non-U.S.-rate exposures were excluded.
FED DOT PLOT SHOWS ONE MORE HIKE THIS YEAR AND NO CUTS IN 2027
- End-2026: 4.1%, from 3.8% in June
- End-2027: 4.1%, from 3.6%
- End-2028: 3.9%, from 3.4%
- End-2029: 3.6%
- Longer run: 3.2%, from 3.1%
12 of 18 officials see one more 25bp hike this year, four see two, and two see no more hikes.
FED OFFICIALS RAISE THEIR MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE FORECAST TO 4.1% AT END-2026, 4.1% AT END-2027 AND 3.9% AT END-2028, UP FROM 3.8%, 3.6% AND 3.4%, RESPECTIVELY.