Vistra (VST) official guidance
Vistra (VST) official earnings guidance and management outlook. Each figure management stated is shown with its revisions and the source quote.
See the full Filings Intelligence suiteVSTVistra Corp.FY2030+ · ends 2030-12-31
2 metrics1 lowered1 maintainedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC4% – 6%lowered -9.1%
We believe annual load growth of at least 4%-6% in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM through 2030 remain reasonable estimates for these markets.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTC5% – 6%new5% – 6%
In ERCOT, we believe annual load growth of at least 5%-6% through 2030 is reasonable, and in PJM, 2%-3% annual load growth appears likely to persist.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC2% – 3%maintained
We believe annual load growth of at least 4%-6% in ERCOT and 2%-3% in PJM through 2030 remain reasonable estimates for these markets.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTC2% – 3%new2% – 3%
In ERCOT, we believe annual load growth of at least 5%-6% through 2030 is reasonable, and in PJM, 2%-3% annual load growth appears likely to persist.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027+ · ends 2027-12-31
3 metrics1 lowered1 maintainedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$2B – $2.5Blowered -25.0%
Even after these significant allocations directly to our equity holders into growth, we expect approximately $2 billion-$2.5 billion of additional cash available to allocate through year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTC$3B
We continue to expect to have approximately $3 billion of additional capital available to allocate through year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTCat least $3Bnew
Even after allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases and common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027, and approximately $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, and the PJM nuclear upgrades supported by PPAs with Meta, we still expect to have more than $3 billion of additional capital available to allocate through year-end 2027, all while achieving an attractive net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.3 times by year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$3Bmaintained
We have allocated approximately $3 billion to our equity holders in 2026 and 2027 through share repurchases and common and preferred dividends.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTC$3Bnew
After allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases in common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027 and approximately $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, the PJM nuclear uprates supported by PPAs with Meta, and the development of Oak Hill 2, supported by a PPA with a large investment-grade counterparty.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTCat least $10B
Our forecast indicates that we will generate more than $10 billion of available cash in 2026 and 2027.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTCat least $10B
Based on our outlook, we still have line of sight to more than $10 billion of cash generation over 2026 and 2027.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTCat least $10B
Turning to slide 13, based on our expectations for 2026 and our previously communicated range of midpoint opportunities for 2027, as well as the expected contribution in 2026 and 2027 from the Meta PPAs and the closing of the Cogentrix acquisition, we project to generate more than $10 billion of cash through year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
2025-11-07 05:01:05 UTC$10Bnew
We project to generate a significant amount of cash, approximately $10 billion through year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-07 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2026 · ends 2026-12-31
1 metric1 raisedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$6.8B – $7.6Braised +1.1%
Turning to slide nine, we are reaffirming our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and our adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance range of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC$6.7B – $7.5Bmaintained
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance | $ | 6,800 | | $ | 7,600 | | $ | (80) | | $ | (80) | | $ | 6,720 | | $ | 7,520 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2026-05-07 11:02:18 UTC$6.7B – $7.5Bmaintained
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance | $ | 6,800 | | 7,600 | | (80) | | (80) | | 6,720 | | 7,520 |
VST · EX-99 · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-07 11:01:21 UTCOpen source
2026-02-26 12:01:31 UTC$6.7B – $7.5Blowered -1.1%
| **Adjusted EBITDA guidance** | **$** | **6,800** | | **$** | **7,600** | | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **(80** | **)** | | **$** | **6,720** | | **$** | **7,520** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-26 12:00:20 UTCOpen source
2025-11-07 05:01:05 UTC$6.8B – $7.6Braised +1.1%
Moving to our near-term outlook, we are introducing guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion.
VST · transcript · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-07 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC$6.7B – $7.5Bnew
| **Adjusted EBITDA guidance** | **$** | **6,800** | | **$** | **7,600** | | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **6,720** | | **$** | **7,520** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027 · ends 2027-12-31
1 metric1 maintainedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$7.4B – $7.8Bmaintained
However, due to several offsetting factors, including higher prices in PJM, the support from our comprehensive hedging program, and the downside protection afforded by the nuclear PTC, we are maintaining our 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion-$7.8 billion.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2025-11-07 05:01:05 UTC$7.4B – $7.8Bnew
Finally, for 2027, we are introducing an adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range of $7.4 billion-$7.8 billion.
VST · transcript · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-07 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2026 · ends 2026-12-31
1 metric1 raisedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$3.9B – $4.7Braised +4.0%
Turning to slide nine, we are reaffirming our 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and our adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance range of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC$3.8B – $4.6Bmaintained
| Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance | $ | 3,925 | | $ | 4,725 | | $ | (165) | | $ | (165) | | $ | 3,760 | | $ | 4,560 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2026-05-07 11:02:18 UTC$3.8B – $4.6Bmaintained
| Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance | $ | 3,925 | | 4,725 | | (165) | | (165) | | 3,760 | | 4,560 |
VST · EX-99 · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-07 11:01:21 UTCOpen source
2026-02-26 12:01:31 UTC$3.8B – $4.6Blowered -3.8%
| **Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance** | **$** | **3,925** | | **$** | **4,725** | | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **(165** | **)** | | **$** | **3,760** | | **$** | **4,560** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-26 12:00:20 UTCOpen source
2025-11-07 05:01:05 UTC$3.9B – $4.7Braised +4.0%
Moving to our near-term outlook, we are introducing guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion-$7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion-$4.725 billion.
VST · transcript · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-07 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC$3.8B – $4.6Bnew
| **Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance** | **$** | **3,925** | | **$** | **4,725** | | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **3,760** | | **$** | **4,560** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027+ · ends 2027-12-31
1 metric1 raisedearnings call · 2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC
2026-08-08 04:01:02 UTC$4.5B – $5Braised +18.8%
In addition to allocating significant amounts directly to our equity holders, we also expect to allocate approximately $4.5 billion-$5 billion to accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian Gas Units, the PJM nuclear operate supported by power purchase agreements with Meta, the development of the Oak Hill 2 solar facility supported by a power purchase agreement with a large investment-grade counterparty, and now our capital commitment to Helix.
VST · transcript · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-05-08 04:01:08 UTC$4Bnew
After allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases in common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027 and approximately $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, the PJM nuclear uprates supported by PPAs with Meta, and the development of Oak Hill 2, supported by a PPA with a large investment-grade counterparty.
VST · transcript · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-08 04:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2026 · ends 2026-12-31
4 metrics4 maintainedearnings release · 2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC-$80Mmaintained
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance | $ | 6,800 | | $ | 7,600 | | $ | (80) | | $ | (80) | | $ | 6,720 | | $ | 7,520 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2026-05-07 11:02:18 UTC-$80Mmaintained
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance | $ | 6,800 | | 7,600 | | (80) | | (80) | | 6,720 | | 7,520 |
VST · EX-99 · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-07 11:01:21 UTCOpen source
2026-02-26 12:01:31 UTC-$80Mmaintained
| **Adjusted EBITDA guidance** | **$** | **6,800** | | **$** | **7,600** | | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **(80** | **)** | | **$** | **6,720** | | **$** | **7,520** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-26 12:00:20 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC-$80Mnew
| **Adjusted EBITDA guidance** | **$** | **6,800** | | **$** | **7,600** | | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **(80** | **)** | **$** | **6,720** | | **$** | **7,520** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC$6.8B – $7.6Bmaintained
Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, respectively.3
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2026-02-26 12:01:31 UTC$6.8B – $7.6Bmaintained
| Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | $ | 6,800 - $7,600 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-26 12:00:20 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC$6.8B – $7.6Bnew
| Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA | $5,700 - $5,900 | $6,800 - $7,600 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC-$165Mmaintained
| Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance | $ | 3,925 | | $ | 4,725 | | $ | (165) | | $ | (165) | | $ | 3,760 | | $ | 4,560 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2026-05-07 11:02:18 UTC-$165Mmaintained
| Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance | $ | 3,925 | | 4,725 | | (165) | | (165) | | 3,760 | | 4,560 |
VST · EX-99 · Q1 FY2026
2026-05-07 11:01:21 UTCOpen source
2026-02-26 12:01:31 UTC-$165Mmaintained
| **Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance** | **$** | **3,925** | | **$** | **4,725** | | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **(165** | **)** | | **$** | **3,760** | | **$** | **4,560** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-26 12:00:20 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC-$165Mnew
| **Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance** | **$** | **3,925** | | **$** | **4,725** | | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **(165** | **)** | **$** | **3,760** | | **$** | **4,560** | |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
2026-08-07 11:01:34 UTC$3.9B – $4.7Bmaintained
Reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG1 guidance ranges of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, respectively.3
VST · EX-99.1 · Q2 FY2026
2026-08-07 11:00:25 UTCOpen source
2025-11-06 12:01:44 UTC$3.9B – $4.7Bnew
| Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG | $3,300 - $3,500 | $3,925 - $4,725 |
VST · EX-99.1 · Q3 FY2025
2025-11-06 12:00:18 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027+ · ends 2027-12-31
1 metric1 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTCcontinue to show growthnew
We expect calendar years 2026 and 2027 to continue to show growth, which would mark the first four-year period of sustained growth since the four-year period ending 2007.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2026 · ends 2026-12-31
1 metric1 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTCat least $12.5new
You can see on the chart, based on forward curves as of February 20th and a stable share count as of December 31st, we continue to see adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to exceed $12.50 for 2026.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027 · ends 2027-12-31
2 metrics2 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC$16new
Given additional actions taken to date, including the Cogentrix acquisition and Meta power purchase agreements, together with a simplifying assumption with respect to the deployment of our cash available for allocation through 2027 to share repurchases, we project adjusted free cash flow before growth per share to increase to approximately $16.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTCmid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretionnew
From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price as attractive at approximately $730 per kW of capacity, net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high-single-digit accretion on average over the 2027-2029 period.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2029+ · ends 2029-12-31
1 metric1 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTChigh-single-digit accretionnew
From a financial perspective, we view the purchase price as attractive at approximately $730 per kW of capacity, net of expected tax benefits, and we expect the transaction to deliver mid-single-digit adjusted free cash flow before growth per share accretion in 2027, with a high-single-digit accretion on average over the 2027-2029 period.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2027 · ends 2027-12-31
1 metric1 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC2.30xnew
Even after allocating approximately $3 billion to our equity holders through share repurchases and common and preferred dividends in 2026 and 2027, and approximately $4 billion towards accretive growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition, the development of the Permian gas units, and the PJM nuclear upgrades supported by PPAs with Meta, we still expect to have more than $3 billion of additional capital available to allocate through year-end 2027, all while achieving an attractive net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.3 times by year-end 2027.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source
VSTVistra Corp.FY2030+ · ends 2030-12-31
1 metric1 newearnings call · 2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTC
2026-02-27 05:01:20 UTClow single-digit growthnew1% – 3%
We maintain our view that annual peak load growth of at least 3%-5% in ERCOT and low single-digit growth in PJM is achievable through 2030.
VST · transcript · Q4 FY2025
2026-02-27 05:00:00 UTCOpen source