U.S. Bancorp (USB) official guidance

The $200, I'd multiply that by 85% to get the expense rate, and that's kind of our core operating model at this particular juncture. I would anticipate $60 million or so, $30 or so per quarter here in the third and fourth quarter. There might be some trailing components of that in the first quarter. We'll see as we kind of progress. In terms of the contribution margin, that 15% is a good core base run rate.

Excluding BTIG, we would expect our core expense growth to be approximately 3.5%.

We started the year expecting mid-single digits. I would continue to expect mid-single digits on net interest income. Just given the momentum that we've had in the first half of the year, I would just say that we expect to be north of 5% for the full year.

For the third quarter, we expect net interest income growth of 4%-6% on a fully taxable equivalent basis compared to the third quarter of 2025.

We continue to see a path on the 3% journey here at some point in 2027.

Non-interest expense growth of approximately 8% compared to the third quarter of 2025.

We expect to deliver approximately 200 basis points of positive operating leverage this year and more than 300 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG.

We expect to deliver approximately 200 basis points of positive operating leverage this year and more than 300 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG.

Additionally, we expect to recognize approximately $160 million of reserve build related to the Amazon Small Business Portfolio purchase, which we anticipate will close in mid-August.

$60 million would be just the merger-related items that we would anticipate this year. There'll be a tail or so, probably early 2027.

For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 7%-9% compared to the prior year, or in the range of 5%-7% excluding BTIG, up from our prior range of 4%-6%.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 12%-14% compared to the third quarter of 2025, with contribution from BTIG of roughly $200 million per quarter in the back half of the year.

For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 7%-9% compared to the prior year, or in the range of 5%-7% excluding BTIG, up from our prior range of 4%-6%.

We talked about $75 million-$85 million of revenue. A majority of that is in net interest income, so there'll be some split between NII and fees on that. Of course, just as a reminder, we anticipate $160 million reserve build that will occur with the closing that we anticipate to be mid-August.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 12%-14% compared to the third quarter of 2025, with contribution from BTIG of roughly $200 million per quarter in the back half of the year.

We've talked about loan growth to being in kind of that 3%-4%, but I certainly think it's going to be higher than that. It's probably more in a mid-single-digit range from a broader loan growth perspective for the full year.

Starting with the second quarter 2026 guidance, net interest income growth on a fully taxable equivalent basis is expected to be in the range of 6%-7% compared to the second quarter of 2025.

Yeah. John, thanks. Yeah, we certainly still see a path to that 3%.

We expect total non-interest expense growth of 3%-4% compared to the second quarter of 2025.

Total fee revenue growth is expected to be in the range of 6%-7% compared to the second quarter of 2025.

On the Amazon side of the equation, we expect that to be coming online in the third quarter. The loan amount is going to be about a $1.6 billion area, and it's going to be about 70,000 co-brand clients. It's probably going to add in the neighborhood of $75 million-$85 million per quarter. A majority of that is going to be on the net interest income side of the equation.

Our guidance excludes the impact of the pending BTIG acquisition, which is expected to contribute approximately $200 million of fee revenue per quarter, with an anticipated close date in the back half of the second quarter.

The buybacks, as you know, we went from $100 million-$200 million this quarter. I would anticipate we're going to continue to glide up. I think we're going to start at $200 million would be my base case, but because we see such strength in the pipelines, but it could increase from there, or that would be our intention.

But overall, if I just kind of look big picture on card 2025 versus 2026, we expect stability in that charge-off rate based on what we know today.

Since you talked about that, I'll mention that we do expect growth in the commercial real estate line.

Net interest income growth on a fully taxable equivalent basis is expected to be in the range of 3%-4% compared to the first quarter of 2025.

We expect total non-interest expense growth of approximately 1% compared to the first quarter of 2025.

We do expect mid-single-digit growth in this business for the year of 2026.

That will likely continue into the first half of the year, but should overall strengthen as we get through that. And by the time we exit that, that will also be more in the mid-single digit range.

And so again, here, we think that mid-single digit growth for the year is appropriate for this business as well.

Total fee revenue growth is expected to be in the range of 5%-6% compared to the first quarter of 2025.

Starting with the full year of 2026, we expect total net revenue growth to be in the range of 4%-6% compared to the prior year. We expect to deliver positive operating leverage of 200 basis points or more for the full year. Our guidance excludes the impact of the BTIG acquisition, which is expected to contribute $175 million-$200 million of fee revenue per quarter.

There's no impact to our buyback. In fact, as I mentioned earlier, we'll be increasing our share repurchases from $100 million-$200 million this quarter.

for certain, our 2025 loss rate on card will be less than our loss rate in 2024.

In the fourth quarter, we expect net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis to be relatively stable to our third quarter level of $4.25 billion.

Total non-interest expense is expected to increase between 1% and 1.5% sequentially.

We expect to deliver positive operating leverage of 200 basis points or more on an adjusted basis.

Total fee revenue is expected to be approximately $3 billion.