U.S. Bancorp (USB) official guidance

For the fourth quarter, on a year-over-year basis, we expect net interest income growth of 6%-7% on a fully taxable equivalent basis.

We currently expect net interest margin to increase by a similar amount in the fourth quarter.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 13%-14%, with roughly half of the growth coming from BTIG, and non-interest expense growth of approximately 8%, or closer to 4% excluding BTIG.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 13%-14%, with roughly half of the growth coming from BTIG, and non-interest expense growth of approximately 8%, or closer to 4% excluding BTIG.

We now expect to deliver approximately 300 basis points of positive operating leverage for the full year, or approximately 400 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG.

We now expect to deliver approximately 300 basis points of positive operating leverage for the full year, or approximately 400 basis points excluding the impact from BTIG.

Then other revenue, we did have some gains that were more unique to this quarter. So our other revenue tends to be in that $125 million to $150 million range. So we anticipate that to kind of normalize into that.

On the capital market side, we continue to see strong growth there into the next quarter. Obviously, we had a very strong growth of 69% or so this quarter. BTIG will continue to be a strong component of that at about $200 million or so.

For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 8%-9% compared to the prior year, or 6%-7% excluding BTIG.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 13%-14%, with roughly half of the growth coming from BTIG, and non-interest expense growth of approximately 8%, or closer to 4% excluding BTIG.

For the full year 2026, we now expect total net revenue growth of 8%-9% compared to the prior year, or 6%-7% excluding BTIG.

The $200, I'd multiply that by 85% to get the expense rate, and that's kind of our core operating model at this particular juncture. I would anticipate $60 million or so, $30 or so per quarter here in the third and fourth quarter. There might be some trailing components of that in the first quarter. We'll see as we kind of progress. In terms of the contribution margin, that 15% is a good core base run rate.

Excluding BTIG, we would expect our core expense growth to be approximately 3.5%.

We started the year expecting mid-single digits. I would continue to expect mid-single digits on net interest income. Just given the momentum that we've had in the first half of the year, I would just say that we expect to be north of 5% for the full year.

For the third quarter, we expect net interest income growth of 4%-6% on a fully taxable equivalent basis compared to the third quarter of 2025.

We continue to see a path on the 3% journey here at some point in 2027.

Non-interest expense growth of approximately 8% compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Additionally, we expect to recognize approximately $160 million of reserve build related to the Amazon Small Business Portfolio purchase, which we anticipate will close in mid-August.

$60 million would be just the merger-related items that we would anticipate this year. There'll be a tail or so, probably early 2027.

Total fee revenue growth in the range of 12%-14% compared to the third quarter of 2025, with contribution from BTIG of roughly $200 million per quarter in the back half of the year.