Texas Instruments (TXN) official guidance

On OpEx, net other income and expense, and acquisition charges, you should expect all of those to be flat from the second quarter to the third quarter.

First, on the CapEx expectation for 2026, it continues to be $2 billion-$3 billion.

We expect our effective tax rate to be about 13% in the third quarter.

Turning to our outlook for the third quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $5.65 billion-$6.15 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $2.23-$2.57.

On OpEx, net other income and expense, and acquisition charges, you should expect all of those to be flat from the second quarter to the third quarter.

If you play that in, you have the fall-through of 70%-85% excluding depreciation; you should get in the right zip code. As far as the third quarter is concerned, 70%-85% is a good placeholder.

On OpEx, net other income and expense, and acquisition charges, you should expect all of those to be flat from the second quarter to the third quarter.

Turning to our outlook for the third quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $5.65 billion-$6.15 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $2.23-$2.57.

No change to the depreciation expectations. For this year, $2.2-$2.4, and then for 2027, continued upward pressure, but likely at a slower rate.

We expect our effective tax rate to be about 13% in the second quarter.

Turning to our outlook for the second quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $5 billion-$5.4 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.77-$2.05.

Right now, assuming we don't have another false start, I think there is a very high, very likely we will easily beat that $8 free cash flow per share for 2026.

Turning to our outlook for the second quarter, we expect TI's revenue in the range of $5 billion-$5.4 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.77-$2.05.

I will say that, as Rafael alluded to, we are seeing right now, even at the midpoint of the second quarter, and again, I want to see how it plays out, but we're looking at these, I don't know, 17%-18% growth year-over-year for the first half of the year. That's stronger than last year.

On depreciation for 2026, let me give you a new number. We now expect $2.2-$2.4 billion on depreciation in 2026.

Direct funding not changed. We expect up to $1.6 billion in several milestones as we reach those milestones.

We continue to expect our effective tax rate for 2026 to be about 13%-14%.

Turning to our outlook for the Q1, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.32-$4.68 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.22-$1.48.

I would tell you as soon as OpEx is up, low single digits, and you should get into a reasonable number for gross margin.

But for the company, the overall price effect like for like in 2025, we expected it to be low single digits down. Now we finished 2025. It was exactly there. When you say low single digits, think about 2% or 3% down. That's my assumption for 2026.

Turning to our outlook for the Q1, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.32-$4.68 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.22-$1.48.

The other market that I will highlight is the continued strength in data center. We are seeing this market now becoming a little bit more substantial as a percentage of our revenue. I expect this market to continue to grow in Q1.

Yeah, Stacy, high level, you're in the ballpark. We let the EPS guide speak for itself, but you have lower revenue. You fall that through. You have increases in depreciation. For the year, it's $1.8-$2 billion.

Our fourth quarter outlook includes changes related to the new U.S. tax legislation and now assumes an effective tax rate of about 13%.

Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect Texas Instruments' revenue in the range of $4.22-$4.58 billion, and EPS to be in the range of $1.13 to $1.39.

No, I would just say, tactically, for fourth quarter, expect OpEx to be about flat to third quarter, and that's, as Haviv alluded to, the benefits from the restructuring.

For the year, I think our assumption coming into the year was kind of a low single digit decline, like for like on the pricing side. I think that's how we are trending here today. I expect the year to end at that low single digit price reduction in 2025.

Turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, we expect Texas Instruments' revenue in the range of $4.22-$4.58 billion, and EPS to be in the range of $1.13 to $1.39.