Tesla (TSLA) official guidance

It'll be either-- We have an upgraded AI4 chip that's a moderate improvement over AI4, probably reaches production around the middle of next year. We'll say AI5, which hopefully is in volume production around the middle of next year.

We continue to expect that CapEx for this year will be more than $25 billion.

We expect it to increase further in the second half of 2026.

We have started production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3.

Note that we are in a big investment cycle and expect our operating expenses, largely driven by R&D, to continue to grow in 2026 and beyond.

The Cybertruck has started production, and we also have started production. Well, we will soon start production with Optimus.

We expect the ramp of the fleet to accelerate throughout the year, along with expansion into new U.S. markets.

We'll continue to scale, I think, very rapidly with more than 10% a week in terms of miles driven.

We expect to get self-driving working on the Tesla Semi probably around the end of this year or early next year.

It will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi.

Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 remain on schedule for production starting in 2026.

First-generation production lines for Optimus are being installed in anticipation of production in 2026.

Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 remain on schedule for production starting in 2026.

Additionally, our spend on AI-related initiatives, including expense on development of our own AI5 chip and new products like Cybercab, Semi, Optimus, and Megapack, et cetera, continue to be at elevated levels, and we expect this trend to continue for the full year 2026.

However, we still expect 2026 deployments to be higher than 2025.

On a normalized basis, we continue to expect energy compression from here with increasing competition and tariff impacts.

We'll ramp up to significant numbers next year, and we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around summer next year.

We'll ramp up to significant numbers next year, and we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around summer next year.

This is something we expect to be probably a $3 billion-ish initiative, and capable of maybe a few thousand wafers per month.

In the near term, Tesla will be building the research fab on our Giga Texas campus. This is something we expect to be probably a $3 billion-ish initiative, and capable of maybe a few thousand wafers per month.

Well, we certainly hope to have unsupervised FSD or Robotaxi operating in, I don't know, a dozen or so states by the end of this year.

I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter.

In fact, we'll be ramping up production of all vehicles, in all factories, to the best of our ability through the balance of this year.

We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year.

Preparations for our first large-scale Optimus factory will begin shortly in Q2.

And we expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in, you know, probably, I don't know, somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.

And we expect to start production in April.

Because we're really moving into a future that is based on autonomy and so if you're interested in buying a Model S and X, now would be the time to order it, because we expect to wind down S and X production in next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter.

We'll obviously continue to support the Model S and X programs for as long as people have the vehicles, but we're gonna take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory, which will... with the long-term goal of having 1 million units a year of Optimus robots in the current S/X space in Fremont.

We wouldn't expect to have, you know, any kind of significant Optimus production volume until probably the end of this year.

with the exception of the next generation Roadster, which we're hoping to debut in April. Hopefully. It's gonna be something out of this world.

In the absence of that, you kinda have to go on a city-by-city or state-by-state basis. But nonetheless, we even if it is city by city, state by state, we expect to be in, you know, I don't know, dozens of cities, dozens of major cities by the end of the year.

Development of our in-house, custom designed AI5 and AI6 inference chips for autonomy progressed during the quarter, with production planned for 2027 and 2028, respectively.

In the first half of 2026, we plan to more than double the size of onsite compute in Texas (in terms of H100 equivalents).

Preparations continue in North America for the production ramps of Tesla Semi and Cybercab, both commencing 1H26, and production of the next-generation Roadster.

We plan to begin Megapack 3 and Megablock production at Megafactory Houston in 2026.

In Q1 of this year, we plan to unveil the Gen 3 version of Optimus, which will include major upgrades from version 2.5, including our latest hand design.

We expect both domestic cathode material in Texas and LFP lines in Nevada to begin production in 2026.

Planned Robotaxi Coverage Cumulative Paid Robotaxi Miles 11 State Metro Status California SF Bay Area Safety Driver Texas Austin Ramping Unsupervised Dallas 1H 2026 Houston 1H 2026 Arizona Phoenix 1H 2026 Florida Miami 1H 2026 Orlando 1H 2026 Tampa 1H 2026 Nevada Las Vegas 1H 2026

Preparations continue in North America for the production ramps of Tesla Semi and Cybercab, both commencing 1H26, and production of the next-generation Roadster.

On the CapEx front, while we are expecting to be around $9 billion for the current year, we're projecting the numbers to increase substantially in 2026 as we prepare the company for the next phase of growth in terms of not just our existing businesses, but our bets around AI initiatives, including Optimus.

Once the V14 release series is fully done, we are planning on working on a V14 Lite version for Hardware 3, probably expected in Q2 next year.

We received very strong positive customer feedback on our Megapack product, which will begin shipping next year out of Houston.

We expect to be operating in Nevada and Florida and Arizona by the end of the year.

We do expect to be operating robotaxi in, I think, about eight to 10 metro areas by the end of the year.

We are expecting to have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.

We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year.

We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year.

We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year.

We'll have larger builds towards the end of this year and then our first online builds in the first part of next year, ramping into the Q2 timing with real volume coming in the back half of the year.

We've also seen a surge in residential solar demand in the U.S. due to policy changes, which we expect to continue into the first half of 2026 as we introduce a new solar lease product.

We also began production of our Tesla residential solar panel in our Buffalo factory, and we will be shipping that to customers starting Q1.

Aspirationally, it could be 3 million within... We could probably hit an annualized rate of 3 million within 24 months, I think.