Tesla (TSLA) official guidance

There is another milestone that I think important we want to get to, which is to integrate the Tesla AI 5 chip into Optimus, which, if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year.

We are revising our CapEx guidance to be approximately $20 billion for the current year as a result of managing our capital deployment efficiently and plan to fund it primarily from our cash flows from operations.

But in short, we are trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026.

We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year, and hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June.

But real production would be late 2028, which is lightning fast by fab standards.

We suspect somewhere around Q2 next year is when we can turn on some of the first customer vehicles to be part of the Robotaxi fleet.

I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. That's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla.

I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer, to get to that annualized rate, to get to 20,000 units a week.

We will see that over the rest of this year, we'll unlock 24/7 operation, go to higher speed roads.

I think Elon talked about this a little bit at the beginning, that using exponential math, this would become a significant part of our revenue and profitability in 2027.

But if you say maybe, I think it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year.

We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year, and hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June.

Our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028.

We are, I think, aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030.

We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software.

Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.

It'll be either-- We have an upgraded AI4 chip that's a moderate improvement over AI4, probably reaches production around the middle of next year. We'll say AI5, which hopefully is in volume production around the middle of next year.

We expect it to increase further in the second half of 2026.

We have started production with the Tesla Semi truck. We will soon start production with Megapack 3.

Note that we are in a big investment cycle and expect our operating expenses, largely driven by R&D, to continue to grow in 2026 and beyond.