Smurfit Westrock (SW) official guidance

We have said that we expect to get the full cost recovery of the latest increase in Q1 of next year.

For the full year 2026, we now expect Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately $4.7 billion.

Freight and energy costs alone are expected to represent approximately $700 million year-on-year headwind in 2026, materially above our earlier expectations.

As we see the volumes that we gave up last year come out of our business and the comparisons becoming easier, we would say that we are going to be there or thereabouts in Q4, unless something happens with regard to the market that we don't expect.

For example, for the full year 2026 we expect to absorb approximately $700 million of additional freight and energy costs alone, significantly more than anticipated.

We currently expect to spend between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion in total in CapEx this year, which is well in excess of maintenance capital and in line with our DNA.

Current energy costs are broadly in line with the assumptions we highlighted previously, while lower economic downtime in the region of $100 million, alongside continued operational execution and significant cost takeout programs across the group are helping to offset some of that freight and other cost pressures.

On the energy side, I think back then we probably would have said about in a range of call it $220 million-$250 million. It's probably still there or thereabout.

It was very much a changed environment which led to the changed outlook on freight, which leaves us now in a position where we kind of see freight at about $300 million headwind year-over-year.

With input costs remaining elevated, especially freight, we currently expect third quarter Adjusted EBITDA2 to be approximately $1.3 billion and for the full year Adjusted EBITDA2 we expect to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion with good momentum through the latter half of 2026 and beyond.

By 2030, we aim to deliver $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%.

Assuming these conditions prevail, we expect to deliver an adjusted EBITDA for the quarter two of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion.

That's what's behind the drive, as I've said, to go from, you know, zero or negative in our corrugated system to margins of between 8% and 12%. You know, that's where we will get to.

By 2030, we aim to deliver $7 billion of adjusted EBITDA and a group adjusted EBITDA margin of 19%.

That plan demonstrates an accelerated path to growth to 2030 and beyond. The goal of the plan is to deliver significant adjusted EBITDA growth with a CAGR of 7% and margin expansion of over 300 basis points.

Over the life of the plan, we aim to generate $14 billion of discretionary free cash flow, providing us with significant financial flexibility to capitalize on growth opportunities within our business, further strengthen our balance sheet, and increase capital returns for our shareholders.

Broadly, where back in February we might have seen labor be EUR 100 million of a headwind, it's probably more like EUR 50 million as we sit here now, for example.

As a result of these actions, and a generally better operating environment, we expect volume growth in the second half of the year.

Over the next five years, we expect to deploy $13 billion of total capital expenditure, including maintenance and growth CapEx, with an average annual CapEx spend of about $2.6 billion.

We focus on a high volume of small, high-return projects, which translate into a projected annual CapEx spend of approximately $2.4 billion-$2.8 billion over the plan.