State Street (STT) official guidance

Finally, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 22% for the full year and a total payout ratio approaching 80%, subject to any changes in market conditions and other factors.

We now expect NII growth of 15%-16%. Compared with 14%-15% in our July outlook, reflecting strong third quarter performance.

I think the fourth quarter would be another quarter of NII growth from a sequential perspective, the way we see it at this point.

Expenses are expected to increase by roughly 8%-8.5%, reflecting higher revenue-related costs and continued investment.

Taken together, we expect to deliver over 500 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2026.

We expect stability on the other fee line item heading into the fourth quarter, so that's first and foremost.

We do expect that that's going to generate some growth off of the third quarter heading into the fourth quarter.

We expect growth coming from the top three drivers of our fee revenue line item outside of that. So servicing management fees and FX trading we expect growth heading into the fourth quarter from all three of those.

We expect growth coming from the top three drivers of our fee revenue line item outside of that. So servicing management fees and FX trading we expect growth heading into the fourth quarter from all three of those.

We expect fee revenue growth of 13%-14%, up from 12%-13% in July, reflecting favorability in servicing fees and healthy client activity in markets.

We're expecting a north of $100 million quarter in the fourth quarter. That'll be the fourth year of north of $300 million.

To line up with that approaching 80%, the number's probably closer to $700 million, plus or minus.

Finally, we expect an effective tax rate of approximately 22% for the full year and a total payout ratio approaching 80%, subject to any changes in market conditions and other factors.

We do see net interest income rising in that low to mid-single digits area, driven by balance sheet growth in the low single-digit range, and our net interest margin getting to the upper end of our 110 to 115 range as you get out over the medium term.

To support these objectives, our current medium-term outlook includes a CET1 ratio of approximately 11% and a Tier 1 leverage ratio of approximately 5.25%-5.75%.

On the productivity side, given the scale of our global operations, Investment Services is expected to be the largest contributor to the expense saves in our technology and AI-enabled transformation program.

Then on a net basis, maybe similar to what you saw over the recent past, we would expect headcount to be down in the low single digits range on a net basis after reinvestment of that capacity into strategic initiatives and growing our franchises.

We do see net interest income rising in that low to mid-single digits area, driven by balance sheet growth in the low single-digit range, and our net interest margin getting to the upper end of our 110 to 115 range as you get out over the medium term.

We do see net interest income rising in that low to mid-single digits area, driven by balance sheet growth in the low single-digit range, and our net interest margin getting to the upper end of our 110 to 115 range as you get out over the medium term.

What we're saying here is, as I mentioned in my remarks, look at the baseline from which we're launching this in 2026, whether it's One State Street or even our outlook for 2026 overall, we're around 32%. That's growing over the medium term to that 35%, and I'd say that that would be consistent with positive operating leverage of 100-150 basis points, which is driven by organic growth across all three of those businesses that we're talking about.