Charles Schwab (SCHW) official guidance

Following another quarter of strong trading volumes, we have taken full-year daily average trades up to 10.6 million.

Full-year 2026 interest earning assets are expected to expand modestly year-over-year.

With full-year net interest margin expanding to a range of 3%-3.10%, an average 4Q 2026 net interest margin expected to finish in the 3.25%-3.30% range as the timing of the potential Fed rate hike late in the year limits the impact in 2026.

With full-year net interest margin expanding to a range of 3%-3.10%, an average 4Q 2026 net interest margin expected to finish in the 3.25%-3.30% range as the timing of the potential Fed rate hike late in the year limits the impact in 2026.

Given our sustained business momentum, we now anticipate annual expense growth to range from 9.5%-10.5%.

Our asset gathering momentum reinforces our confidence in the 5% organic growth rate we outlined for 2026.

Using these updates, we would expect total revenue growth of 17.5%-18.5% in 2026.

Therefore, we would anticipate revenue per trade to increase modestly from 2Q 2026 levels as rate and volume tend to be inversely correlated.

I would note that underlying expenses still remain in line with the 5.5%-6.5% range we shared at the January winter business update.

For the Q2, we still anticipate the typical drawdown in client cash due to tax payments in April.

Given our strong performance in Q1 and based on what we see today in terms of the expected path of rates and strong client engagement, we are tracking higher than the $5.70-$5.80 EPS range implied by the scenario we shared back at the winter business update in January, which excluded the impact of buybacks and Forge.

In terms of that second part, 6.75%-7% for the adjusted T1 ratio, that is still our objective.

Therefore, if you were to assume the Fed funds rate moves much lower than the current market expectations, perhaps approaching the 2% level, we would still anticipate delivering year-over-year earnings growth of at least 10%, probably a bit better, holding all else equal.

If you follow the math down to the bottom line, this full-year scenario implies potential adjusted earnings of around the $5.70-$5.80 range, which would represent year-over-year earnings growth in the upper teens.

So putting all the pieces together, the combination of strong top-line growth and balanced expense management implies meaningful operating leverage within this scenario, with further pre-tax margin expansion into the low 50s.

With the majority of this benefit realized in Q3 2025, we expect our corporate tax rate to remain around the 23%-24% zone in future periods.

Two, we anticipate year-over-year revenue and earnings expansion to finish 2025.