Charles Schwab (SCHW) official guidance

As we look forward, we expect to see continued cash build through net new assets and the normal seasonal inflow through year-end.

With these dynamics, we continue to expect strong full-year revenue growth and NIM expansion, and with just one quarter remaining in the year, we would expect revenue and full-year NIM to grow towards the lower end of the ranges that we provided at the summer business update.

We'll expand NIM in the fourth quarter, and we expect to continue to expand NIM in 2027.

In terms of the fourth quarter and comparing that to 4Q 2025, I would expect roughly 25 to 30 basis points of NIM expansion that year over year for 4Q25 to 4Q26.

At the same time, we expect expenses to come in at the low end of the range as well, reflecting our continued progress on efficiency while maintaining and adding investments in strategic initiatives to support long-term growth.

Putting it all together, we expect to deliver strong business and financial performance for the year, including approximately 800 basis points of positive operating leverage, roughly double what we expected at the beginning of the year.

With these dynamics, we continue to expect strong full-year revenue growth and NIM expansion, and with just one quarter remaining in the year, we would expect revenue and full-year NIM to grow towards the lower end of the ranges that we provided at the summer business update.

Following another quarter of strong trading volumes, we have taken full-year daily average trades up to 10.6 million.

Full-year 2026 interest earning assets are expected to expand modestly year-over-year.

With full-year net interest margin expanding to a range of 3%-3.10%, an average 4Q 2026 net interest margin expected to finish in the 3.25%-3.30% range as the timing of the potential Fed rate hike late in the year limits the impact in 2026.

Our asset gathering momentum reinforces our confidence in the 5% organic growth rate we outlined for 2026.

Therefore, we would anticipate revenue per trade to increase modestly from 2Q 2026 levels as rate and volume tend to be inversely correlated.

I would note that underlying expenses still remain in line with the 5.5%-6.5% range we shared at the January winter business update.

For the Q2, we still anticipate the typical drawdown in client cash due to tax payments in April.

Given our strong performance in Q1 and based on what we see today in terms of the expected path of rates and strong client engagement, we are tracking higher than the $5.70-$5.80 EPS range implied by the scenario we shared back at the winter business update in January, which excluded the impact of buybacks and Forge.

In terms of that second part, 6.75%-7% for the adjusted T1 ratio, that is still our objective.

Therefore, if you were to assume the Fed funds rate moves much lower than the current market expectations, perhaps approaching the 2% level, we would still anticipate delivering year-over-year earnings growth of at least 10%, probably a bit better, holding all else equal.

If you follow the math down to the bottom line, this full-year scenario implies potential adjusted earnings of around the $5.70-$5.80 range, which would represent year-over-year earnings growth in the upper teens.

So putting all the pieces together, the combination of strong top-line growth and balanced expense management implies meaningful operating leverage within this scenario, with further pre-tax margin expansion into the low 50s.

With the majority of this benefit realized in Q3 2025, we expect our corporate tax rate to remain around the 23%-24% zone in future periods.