Raytheon (RTX) official guidance

We expect AOGs to keep trending lower throughout the second half of the year.

We now see adjusted EPS of between $7.10 and $7.25 for the full year, up from our prior range of $6.70-$6.90.

Finally, we now expect free cash flow to be between $8.5 billion and $8.75 billion for the full year, up from our prior range of $8.25 billion-$8.75 billion, primarily driven by higher segment operating profit.

I will say, we're also going to continue to drive deliveries to Airbus. We'll be up in the second half of the year there, and we'll deliver a record number of GTF engines this year.

With respect to operating profit, we now expect growth between $550 million and $625 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $425 million and $525 million, driven by drop-through on increased sales volume and ongoing cost-reduction initiatives.

With respect to operating profit, we now expect growth between $275 million and $350 million versus 2025, up from our prior expectation of between $225 million and $325 million, primarily driven by drop-through on increased sales volume.

Organically, we now expect high single-digit to low double-digit growth, up from our prior range of high single-digit.

Turning to Pratt's full-year outlook, we now expect sales to grow high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, up from our prior range of mid-single digits due to the strength in commercial aftermarket, partially offset by commercial OE mix.

Turning to Raytheon's full-year outlook, we now expect sales to grow high single digits to low double digits on an adjusted and organic basis. This is up from our prior range of high single digits due to the strength Neil mentioned.

This translates to full-year RTX organic sales growth of between 8% and 9%, up from our prior range of between 5%-6%.

On the top line, we're raising our full-year adjusted sales outlook by $2.5 billion to a new range of $95 billion-$96 billion, up from our prior range of $92.5 billion-$93.5 billion.

Turning to Collins' full-year outlook, based on the continued commercial OE production ramp and defense strength, we now expect sales to grow mid- to high single digits on an adjusted basis, up from our prior range of mid-single digits.

Turning to Pratt's full-year outlook, we now expect sales to grow high single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, up from our prior range of mid-single digits due to the strength in commercial aftermarket, partially offset by commercial OE mix.

Within the commercial aftermarket, we now expect sales to grow low double-digits across the company this year, up from our prior expectation of high-single-digits driven by the strength of Pratt that I mentioned earlier.

Breaking this down further, we now expect commercial OE sales to grow mid- to high-single-digits, up from the prior expectation of mid-single-digits, primarily attributable to the production ramp at Collins.

With respect to defense sales, we now see growth of high-single-digits, which is at the higher end of our prior range of mid- to high-single-digits.

Given all the elements that I just talked about within MRO and those indicators, we continue to believe that that downward trajectory is going to continue.

As Chris said, we continue to expect mid- to high single-digit large commercial engine delivery growth for the full year.

We're expecting solid growth for the full year, and pretty good line of sight to mods and upgrades for the remainder of the year.

As we look out, we're planning, call it 1%-2% kind of retirements for the V.

The shop visits for the first quarter were on the run rate we expect for the full year, which is about 800.

In 2026, we plan to invest another $10.5 billion in CapEx in company and customer-funded research and development, including another $3.1 billion in CapEx on top of the $2.6 billion I just highlighted for last year.

We've got about $3.4 billion of payments that are coming due this year that we anticipate to make and bring that debt down further.

So in our outlook for 2026, we have $700 million placed held as the cash outflow.

We expect this momentum to continue in 2026, with year-over-year growth in PW1100 MRO output in line with what we saw in 2025.

Raytheon's adjusted operating profit is expected to be up between $200 million and $300 million versus the prior year, driven by drop-through on higher volume, favorable contract mix, and improved net productivity.

We've seen solid margins in progression on the GTF aftermarket. So I'd call it low double-digit kind of margins.

There's no reason to believe that the Raytheon margins can't be north of 12%, and we're certainly well on our way in this outlook that we put out today.

As you go to 2026, inclusive of tariffs, we're going to see another 80 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint.

We'll see 1-2 points maybe of expansion here in 2026.

Our R&D for 2026 is going to approach $3 billion with a healthy portion of that sitting in Raytheon, obviously.

Turning to Raytheon, we expect sales to grow mid- to high-single digits on both an adjusted and organic basis, principally driven by growth across land and air defense systems.

Adjusting for the divestitures we completed in 2025, we expect commercial OE to be up approximately 10%, driven by double-digit growth across narrow-body and wide-body production, along with single-digit growth across business jet and civil rotorcraft platforms.

Research and development capital, we've got a healthy level of CapEx invested expected this year, $2.5 billion - $2.7 billion.

The Q3 $0.12 tax benefit I mentioned will not repeat. We expect a higher effective tax rate in the fourth quarter.

All in, we now see adjusted EPS at a new range of between $6.10 and $6.20 for the full year, up from our prior range of $5.80 - $5.95.

On free cash flow, we are on track to achieve our outlook of between $7 billion and $7.5 billion for the year.

The team continues to be disciplined with our compensation payments to our customers. I'd say we're right on track with where we expected to be this year. We have some more to go, a little bit heavier fourth quarter payments. That was all planned and contemplated in our outlook. We said between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion for the year, so the residual falls into next year.

As it relates to GTF engines, as it relates to that, when we started the year, I talked about growth that was similar to last year. Didn't put an exact number on it. As I sit here today, I think we're going to end up in the high single digit rather growth rate. So think about 8% - 10% kind of range so that you could do the math on the fourth quarter there.

putting Pratt in a position to deliver about 30% MRO output growth for the year.

We now expect operating profit growth between $325 million and $375 million versus 2024, up from our prior expectation of between $275 million and $350 million, driven by drop through in higher commercial aftermarket volume.

We now expect operating profit growth between $350 million and $400 million versus 2024, up from our prior expectation of between $200 million and $275 million, driven by drop through and higher commercial aftermarket volume and favorable commercial OE mix.

We now expect operating profit growth between $400 million and $450 million versus 2024, up from our prior expectation of between $225 million and $300 million, driven by the favorable international program mix we saw during the third quarter.

Specific to Q4, we expect another quarter of strong operational performance at the segment level, with segment profit up around 10% year-over-year, excluding the impact of tariffs and recent divestitures at Collins.

Turning to Collins full year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow mid single digits year over year on an adjusted basis and high single digits organically.

Turning to Raytheon's full year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow low single digits year- over- year on an adjusted basis and mid single digits organically.

This now translates to between 8% and 9% organic sales growth for the year, up from our prior range of 6% - 7%.

On the top line, we are raising our full year adjusted sales outlook to a range of $86.5 billion - $87 billion, up from our prior range of $84.75 billion - $85.5 billion.

Turning to Collins full year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow mid single digits year over year on an adjusted basis and high single digits organically.

Turning to Raytheon's full year outlook, we continue to expect sales to grow low single digits year- over- year on an adjusted basis and mid single digits organically.

By channel at the RTX level and adjusting for divestitures, we now expect commercial aftermarket sales to grow mid-teens year-over-year, up from our prior outlook of low teens, primarily driven by heavier shop visit content that we saw in Q3 at Pratt.

On the commercial original equipment (OE) side, we expect sales to grow around 10% for the year, up from our prior outlook of high single digits year over year.

On defense, we continue to expect sales to grow mid-single digits.