Raymond James (RJF) official guidance

Looking ahead, we estimate our effective tax rate for the fiscal 2027 to be approximately 25%, which excludes any impact the corporate-owned life insurance, or COLI, portfolio valuation could have on the rate during the year.

Looking ahead, based on interest rates that include the full impact of the September rate increase and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances, net of the fiscal first quarter fee billing collection of $2.1 billion, we would expect aggregate NII and RJBDP fees from third-party banks in the first quarter to be up approximately 1% over the fourth quarter level.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, we expect non-compensation expenses, excluding the bank loan loss provision for credit losses, non-GAAP adjustments presented in our non-GAAP financial measures, and any unexpected legal and regulatory items to be approximately $2.5 billion, representing about an 8% increase year-over-year.

Looking ahead, we expect fiscal first quarter 2027 asset management and related administrative fees to increase approximately 1% from the fourth quarter level, driven by higher PCG assets and fee-based accounts at quarter-end.

We estimate our effective tax rate for the fiscal year will approximate 24%.

Looking ahead, based on static interest rates and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances, net of the fiscal Q4 fee billing collection of $2.1 billion, we would expect aggregate NII and RJBDP fees from third-party banks in the Q4 to be approximately flat with the Q3 level.

For the fiscal year, we remain on track with our target level of non-compensation expenses of approximately $2.3 billion, even with the additional costs associated with our two recent acquisitions, which were not contemplated at the time the target was set.

Looking ahead, we expect fiscal Q4 2026 Asset Management and related administrative fees to increase approximately 11% from the Q3 level, driven primarily by higher PCG assets in fee-based accounts at quarter end.

Based on static interest rates and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances, net of the fiscal third quarter fee billing collection of $1.9 billion, we would expect the aggregate of NII and RJBDP third-party fees in the third quarter to be up approximately 1% from the second quarter level.

As we look ahead, we expect fiscal third quarter 2026 asset management and related administrative fees to be higher by approximately 1% over the second quarter level, driven by the impact of one additional billing day in our third quarter, along with the slightly higher PCG assets and fee-based accounts balance at quarter end.

Based on current interest rates, including the full impact of the October and December rate cuts, and assuming unchanged quarter-end balances, net of the $1.8 billion fiscal second quarter fee billing collection, we would expect the aggregate of NII and RJBDP fees in the second quarter to be down from the first quarter level.

So we are optimistic about the pipeline, and, you know, we would be disappointed for the rest of the year if the revenue in the capital markets segment doesn't improve meaningfully above the $380 million level that it's achieved this quarter.

As we look ahead, we expect fiscal second quarter 2026 asset management and related administrative fees to be higher by approximately 1% over the first quarter level, driven by the impact of two fewer billing days in our second quarter, which partially offsets the impact of the 3% increase in PCG assets and fee-based accounts at quarter end.

Taking this capital action into consideration, we expect to target approximately $400 million of common share repurchases again in the fiscal second quarter.

We're really excited about the AI investments. We're very focused on it. We built out the team. We're budgeting for a significant increase in the AI expense next year.

Based on current interest rates, including the full quarter impact of the September rate cut and quarter-end balances net of the $1.8 billion fiscal first quarter fee billings, we would expect the aggregate of NII and RJ BDP third-party fees in the first quarter to be approximately flat with the fourth quarter level.

The last guidance we put out in our Analyst Investor Day was that we want to generate pre-tax margins of over 20%, which we were able to do this fiscal year. We will update that target as appropriate in the next Analyst Investor Day sometime in the May-June period. In the meantime, that target stands.

As we look ahead, we expect fiscal first quarter 2026 asset management and related administrative fees to be higher by approximately 6.5% over the fourth quarter level, driven by higher PCG assets and fee-based accounts at quarter end.