Northern Trust (NTRS) official guidance

We expect the effective tax rate to be closer to 25% in the fourth quarter and going forward.

Assuming a relatively stable market environment and interest rate backdrop, we now expect fourth quarter net interest income to increase 8%-9% year-over-year, and total revenue to increase 6%-7%.

Excluding notable items, we expect to deliver positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter and 500 basis points or more of operating leverage for the full year.

Excluding notable items, we expect to deliver positive operating leverage in the fourth quarter and 500 basis points or more of operating leverage for the full year.

Assuming a relatively stable market environment and interest rate backdrop, we now expect fourth quarter net interest income to increase 8%-9% year-over-year, and total revenue to increase 6%-7%.

We continue to expect the full year effective tax rate to be approximately 26%-26.5%.

For the full year, assuming a relatively stable market environment and interest rate backdrop, we now expect net interest income to be up 9%-10% year-over-year.

We now expect total revenue to grow by 9%-10% year-over-year, which is an increase from our previous guide of up mid single digits.

If you do all the math, it's roughly a 5%-7% increase in total revenues during that period.

Looking ahead, we will continue to build out our alternatives platform with a number of new alternative investment funds and strategies planned for launch later this year, with the goal of increasing alts fundraising by 25%.

I think we're going to keep $4 billion-$5 billion of that. In terms of average deposits.

We still expect to generate more than 100 basis points of positive operating leverage, and we expect to return at least 100% of our earnings to shareholders.

The direction of travel on expenses is down for the remainder of the year.

Centers of influence, which include attorneys, accountants, and other professionals, are a vital referral source, driving nearly 25% of our new business activity. In the first quarter, we introduced a more robust and structured outreach framework to engage key centers of influence, including hiring a senior leader to accelerate this initiative, targeting a 10% increase in opportunities in 2026.

We're advancing plans to increase revenue-generating roles by high single-digit percentages by year-end.

Q1 will definitely be lower in terms of total NII.

From our perspective, we think during the course at least of 2026. I would never want to do an estimate of 2027 at this point, but in 2026, we think we can keep the NIM pretty stable during the course of the year in the 170s.

But generally speaking, I can assure you that the direction of travel for expense growth will be down.

For 2026, we plan to raise our productivity target by 10%, supported by maturing initiatives, further structural and workforce improvements, and broader AI deployment.

We would think that we would be around mid-single digits in revenue growth. And trust fee and revenue growth, maybe revenue growth a bit higher, but around mid-single digits.