Norfolk Southern (NSC) official guidance

Now, we are increasing our capital expenditure outlook and expect 2026 CapEx to be roughly $2.1 billion, which is up from $1.9 billion originally.

As a result, our updated adjusted OpEx guidance for the full year is to be just north of $9 billion, which includes approximately $700 million of incremental fuel expense compared to our view at the beginning of the year.

As a result, our updated adjusted OpEx guidance for the full year is to be just north of $9 billion, which includes approximately $700 million of incremental fuel expense compared to our view at the beginning of the year.

We remain committed to at least $150 million in cost takeout during 2026, which will deliver at least $650 million in cumulative savings over the three-year period, exceeding our original target.

Our project pipeline continues to gain momentum with the number of new manufacturing facilities and expansion projects that are expected to enter the design and construction phase in 2026, projected to be nearly double last year's level.

Our new 2026 operating expense outlook is $8.8 billion-$8.9 billion.

You put that all together, I think we're at a place where we believe we can beat that normal sequential seasonality, and I'd put that up to 100 basis points better than normal.

We've got lower land sales. Specifically, you may recall we had a $35 million land sale in the second quarter last year that we don't expect this year.

Yeah. About 200 basis points of sequential OR benefit from first quarter to going into second quarter.

We continue to refine our focus to unearth other opportunities, and you heard John talk about some of those initiatives as we work towards the $150+ million of efficiencies planned for this year, on top of the over $500 million in productivity we generated over the last two years.

An uptick in revenue from first quarter to second quarter, for sure.

Now, from a headcount perspective, I think what you're going to continue to see is us continue to trade down a bit, especially if the volume isn't there. I mean, we have to continue hiring our trainees, our conductor trainees, to replenish the pool because we do have a fair amount of attrition, but there will still be net attrition.

While revenue in this environment is proving difficult to guide, you can expect that our fourth quarter cost in absolute dollars will be in the $2.0 billion-$2.1 billion range.

As you saw in John's section, we are making excellent progress on the productivity front and are raising our 2025 cumulative efficiency target to roughly $200 million, and this follows the nearly $300 million we achieved in 2024.