Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ) official guidance

We maintain our 2026 non-GAAP tax rate guidance of 22.5%-24.5%.

We are updating our non-GAAP expense guidance for the year to a range of $2.550 billion-$2.580 billion, from $2.530 billion-$2.570 billion, with two primary drivers.

The Level revenue contribution for the fourth quarter is expected to be $7 million-$8 million, and the expense are included in our updated expense guidance.

Additionally, in October, we launched a variable notional accelerated share repurchase plan of $315 million-$385 million. It will be completed in the fourth quarter.

In July, we launched a $200 million-$250 million variable accelerated share repurchase plan, which will be completed in the third quarter.

We have a program in place where we are striving to achieve $100 million of expense efficiencies by the end of 2027.

Looking ahead, we expect a higher expense growth rate in the second quarter than the first quarter, driven in part by the timing of our annual compensation cycle, consistent with the prior year.

As such, we did not expect to maintain those levels over the first half of 2026, based on the implementation timing for deals signed in the second half of 2025.

We have incurred costs principally related to employee-related costs, contract terminations, asset impairments and other related costs and expect to incur additional costs in these areas in an effort to accelerate efficiencies through location strategy and enhanced AI capabilities. Actions taken as part of this program were completed as of December 31, 2025, while certain costs are being recognized in the first half of 2026.

At the end of the fourth quarter, cross-sells accounted for over 15% of financial technology sales pipeline, and we remain on track to surpass $100 million in run rate revenue from cross-sells by the end of 2027.

As a reminder, at the start of 2026, our contracted rate associated with trading of derivatives contracts resets. Holding volumes and capture constant, we expect a sequential revenue impact in Q1 2026, similar to what we saw in Q1 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, we expect an approximately $9 million year-over-year headwind in each quarter from delistings in the previous year, the impact from new proposed changes to listing standards, and the amortization roll-up of prior period initial listing fees.

On taxes, while we believe our previous 2025 non-GAAP tax rate guidance of 22.5%-24.5% is an appropriate expected tax range, we are lowering our full year tax guide to 22.5%-23.5% due to some discrete items that lowered our tax rate in the third quarter.

We expect to reach 3.0 by the end of the year excluding the effects of FX.

We are updating our organic expense expectations for the year to a range of $2.305 billion-$2.335 billion from the previous range of $2.295 billion-$2.335 billion.

Revenue growth reflects solid performance, and we continue to expect professional services revenue to start to improve in the fourth quarter and early 2026.

We continue to expect full year 2025 revenue growth within the medium-term outlook for both Capital Access Platforms and Financial Technology, with Capital Access Platforms at or slightly above the high end of the range, coming from continuous trends in index growth and slightly better than expected performance in data and listings within FinTech.

We have great business momentum in financial client management technology, but based on the performance of the first three quarters of the year, we are expecting the business to end the year just below the range.

We continue to expect full year 2025 revenue growth within the medium-term outlook for both Capital Access Platforms and Financial Technology, with Capital Access Platforms at or slightly above the high end of the range, coming from continuous trends in index growth and slightly better than expected performance in data and listings within FinTech.

We continue to expect the recent enterprise signings to translate into stronger revenue growth starting in the fourth quarter.