Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) official guidance

Turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year, we have lowered the midpoint of our full-year core FFO guidance by $0.04 to $8.49 per diluted share, and established a revised range of $8.43 to $8.55.

For the fourth quarter, we expect core FFO to be in the range of $2.12-$2.24 per diluted share, or $2.18 at the midpoint.

All three projects should reach stabilization in a much lower supplied environment and with stronger operating fundamentals in 2029, and are expected to deliver long-term shareholder returns above our current elevated cost of capital, even under conservative underwriting assumptions.

Together, the revisions to our revenue and expense outlook resulted in a 35 basis points reduction in our full-year same-store NOI growth midpoint to negative 1.25%.

Accordingly, we reduced our expected full-year effective rent growth midpoint by 20 basis points to negative 0.1%, and our expected average physical occupancy midpoint by 10 basis points to 95.4%.

We would expect something better than that in Q4. So we are slowly building occupancy through the quarter. So I think closer to that 95.5% range, give or take.

We also lowered our same-store expense growth midpoint by 35 basis points to 1.4%, driven primarily by lower projected real estate taxes.

Accordingly, we reduced our expected full-year effective rent growth midpoint by 20 basis points to negative 0.1%, and our expected average physical occupancy midpoint by 10 basis points to 95.4%.

Within same-store operations, we reduced our full-year revenue growth midpoint by 35 basis points to negative 0.25%, primarily reflecting third quarter results.

The existing 28 live properties where the service is rolling out to residents as leases are signed, continue to gain momentum, and the additional 38 properties that commenced in 2026 will start going live this quarter.

That full run rate for those projects is closer to $3 million, representing about 14,000 units. Obviously take a long time to get to that run rate.

I think the full run rate for that group of properties is probably close to $2 million or so, which we'll get to later next year.

Looking ahead, we expect to add additional projects to the pipeline during the balance of the year and into early 2027, supporting our objective of building and sustaining a development pipeline of approximately $1 billion and reinforcing development as an important driver of long-term earnings growth.

Combined with the two projects that Brad referenced as starting in the third quarter, our development pipeline will total approximately $804 million.

With one more start later in the year, we are on track to hit our four development starts for the year.

For our current lease-up pipeline, on average, the projected NOI yields, cash yields on those is a 6%.

In 2026, we project over $25 million in incremental year-over-year NOI from the properties represented in this portfolio.

As you kind of layer that through what the impact is for this year, for the back half of the year, for the full year, we're expecting a little over a 6% decline in insurance costs year-over-year.

For July, I expect we'll end July around 95.4 in terms of occupancy.

I would expect next year to look somewhat similar. It could be a little bit higher growth rate just given where we are today.