JPMorgan Chase (JPM) official guidance

At a high level, we talked about at company updates, our consumer deposit growth expectations being low to mid-single digits. I think that is still the belief, and I think we'll be a little bit more confident in that, as you say, once we get through tax season.

At this point, we're sort of expecting that inflection in balance per account to kick in in the second half of 2026, at which point you would start to see kind of a reassertion of the consumer deposit growth, which would get us to modest deposit growth for CCB in 2026, but certainly lower than that 6% scenario that we talked about at Investor Day, which is stuff we already told you about last quarter and that Marianne has discussed.

In terms of the full year 2026 outlook, we continue to expect NII ex markets to be about $95 billion.

We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of markets NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR.

For completeness, we expect total NII to be about $103 billion for the year, as a function of Markets NII increasing to about $8 billion due to lower funding costs from the rate cuts, which you should think of as being primarily offset in NIR.

We now expect total NII to be approximately $103 billion as a function of markets NII decreasing to about $8 billion, predominantly due to rates, which we expect will be primarily offset in NIR.

Now, turning to the outlook for 2026, we continue to expect NII ex-Markets to be about $95 billion.

In keeping with our focus on the fourth quarter and recognizing that you'll likely annualize the fourth quarter NII and ask us about 2026, we're providing the central case for NII ex Markets in 2026, which is about $95 billion.

The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion, and the card net charge-off rate continues to be approximately 3.4%.

To wrap up, on credit, we expect the 2026 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4% on favorable delinquency trends driven by the continued resilience of the consumer.

The adjusted expense outlook continues to be about $105 billion, and the card net charge-off rate continues to be approximately 3.4%.

On expense, as we told you at an industry conference in December, we expect 2026 adjusted expense to be about $105 billion.

But it's going to be tough to beat the 2025 performance in wholesale deposit growth. So we have a more modest expectation for 2026 wholesale deposit growth.

I think we're expecting something like 6% or 7% card loan growth for 2026.