International Paper (IP) official guidance

Our full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook is moving to $2.27 billion-$2.31 billion.

These items result in an adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America of approximately $700 million-$740 million for the fourth quarter.

For the full year, we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $100 million-$200 million.

Given performance to date and expectations for Q4, we expect to outpace industry demand by approximately two percentage points for the full year.

We expect to outperform the industry by more than 1% in the fourth quarter and by approximately 2% for the full year.

Our outlook assumes continued inflationary pressure, with input costs expected to be unfavorable, primarily driven by higher diesel and OCC costs.

Operations and costs are expected to be slightly favorable sequentially, supported by the continued Riverdale ramp-up, NORPAC synergies, and the absence of the third quarter Pine Hill expense.

Price and mix are expected to be favorable, driven by the continued realization of previously published price increases.

Volume is expected to be favorable as seasonally higher daily demand is expected to more than offset two fewer shipping days.

Full-Year 2026: $1.3-$1.4 billion

Fourth quarter 2026: $460-$500 million

First, we expect to realize about $40 million in cost out benefits in the second half of this year.

Altogether, these factors add up to a second half Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $510 million-$610 million for EMEA.

These items result in an Adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions EMEA of approximately $230 million-$250 million for the third quarter.

These items result in an Adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America of approximately $555 million-$585 million for the quarter, which includes that Pine Hill impact.

Taken together, margin recovery and commercial volume uplift are expected to contribute approximately $110 million of incremental Adjusted EBITDA in the second half.

We're now not seeing that given what's going on with inflation and affordability. We think that mutes the overall market, going into the second half of the year, where we had expected a pickup of about a point. We're downgrading that to effectively flat in the second half of the year in North America and up modestly in Europe in the second half of the year.

We're now not seeing that given what's going on with inflation and affordability. We think that mutes the overall market, going into the second half of the year, where we had expected a pickup of about a point. We're downgrading that to effectively flat in the second half of the year in North America and up modestly in Europe in the second half of the year.

We now expect industry demand trends to remain generally stable from the second quarter into the third quarter.

Lastly, input costs are expected to contribute approximately $20 million, reflecting anticipated lower OCC costs.