GE Vernova (GEV) official guidance

This is up $13 billion from last quarter and is on track to reach $200 billion in 2027.

We now expect at least 125 gigawatts under contract by the end of the year.

We remain on track to achieve our $600 million G&A cost reduction target by 2028.

We continue to expect full-year 2026 corporate costs to be between $450 million-$500 million as we continue investing in AI, robotics, and automation to drive productivity over the medium and long term.

We still expect EBITDA losses to be approximately $400 million in 2026, as improvement in onshore wind services and offshore wind offset the lower onshore equipment volume.

We expect EBITDA to be approximately break-even due to continued improvement in onshore services profitability, and lower project costs for offshore, partially offset by lower onshore equipment deliveries.

We continue to expect Electrification EBITDA margin to be 18%-20%.

We continue to anticipate Power EBITDA margins to be between 17%-19% as we see the benefits of our productivity efforts.

We expect an EBITDA margin of approximately 17%-18% as volume price and productivity should more than offset inflation, as well as additional expenses to support capacity and R&D investments.

We're maintaining our EBITDA margin guidance of 12%-14%.

For the third quarter, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion based on our expectations for the segments as we just outlined.

We also expect strong year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion from higher volume, productivity, and favorable price, with a margin rate continuing to expand modestly above Q2 2026 levels.

Given the strength we've seen in orders and resulting down payments, in addition to the higher Adjusted EBITDA, we're increasing our 2026 free cash flow guidance to between $11.5 billion and $12.5 billion, up from $6.5 billion-$7.5 billion.

We also expect to deliver positive free cash flow given our ongoing focus on aligning the timing of inflows and outflows, along with the impact of down payments, which correlate with the timing of orders.

Given our large SRA balance, we would expect gas equipment orders in the second half to have a dollar per kW that is at the higher end of the range of 10 to 20 points versus Q4 2025 orders.

As I mentioned earlier, we expect to end the year with at least 125 gigawatts under contract, making us mostly sold out through 2030, and to have sold more than half of the 30 gigawatts of 2031 production slots by the end of this year.

Our 2026 guidance includes an approximately 30% year-over-year combined increase in R&D and CapEx to support innovation and growth.

In addition, we've substantially completed previously announced restructuring actions expected to generate approximately $250 million in annual savings, the majority of which will impact G&A.

In Electrification, we're raising our revenue expectations by $500 million to $14.5 billion-$15 billion due to accelerated output on our capacity plans and better Prolec revenue.

Third quarter Electrification revenues should be between $3.8 billion and $4 billion, a significant year-over-year increase.

For revenue, we now expect to be in the range of $45.5 billion-$46.5 billion, up $1 billion compared to our previous expectation due to additional growth at Electrification and Power.

Looking to the third quarter of 2026 at Power, we expect continued strong gas equipment orders. We also anticipate 17%-19% revenue growth driven by higher equipment as we increase our annualized run rate for gas power equipment shipments and continued higher services.

For third quarter 2026, we anticipate Wind revenue to decline at a low double-digits rate year-over-year due to lower onshore equipment deliveries.

For the third quarter, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion based on our expectations for the segments as we just outlined.

We shipped approximately 9,000 units last year, plan to do approximately 10,500 this year, and expect growth to accelerate in 2027 from our existing factories, including our Pennsylvania facility.

We shipped approximately 9,000 units last year, plan to do approximately 10,500 this year, and expect growth to accelerate in 2027 from our existing factories, including our Pennsylvania facility.

To meet this demand, we remain on track to deliver 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in the third quarter of 2026, with 24 GW in 2028, and we are implementing actions to produce 30 GW in 2030.

To meet this demand, we remain on track to deliver 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in the third quarter of 2026, with 24 GW in 2028, and we are implementing actions to produce 30 GW in 2030.

To meet this demand, we remain on track to deliver 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in the third quarter of 2026, with 24 GW in 2028, and we are implementing actions to produce 30 GW in 2030.

Invested $0.4 billion in capital expenditures, including to increase production in Power and Electrification, as part of its commitment to invest $6 billion in capex from 2025 through 2028, including $1 billion from Prolec GE from 2026 to 2028.

GE Vernova is raising its 2026 financial guidance and now expects revenue of $45.5-$46.5 billion, up from $44.5-$45.5 billion, and free cash flow\* of $11.5-$12.5 billion, up from $6.5-$7.5 billion; adjusted EBITDA margin\* guidance remains 12%-14%.

Power: 18%-20% organic revenue\* growth, up from 16%-18%, and 17%-19% segment EBITDA margin.

Wind: Organic revenue\* down low-double digits and approximately $400 million of segment EBITDA losses.

Funded $0.3 billion in research and development (R&D) spending, to advance breakthrough energy transition technologies, as part of its commitment to invest $5 billion in R&D from 2025 through 2028.

We told you, last time we said that we were going to reach our approximately 20 GW of capacity in the middle of this year, and then that would step up to 24 GW in 2028, a couple of gigawatts from Lean, a couple of gigawatts from some incremental capacity.

We now expect to book 10 GW-15 GW of contracts in Q2 and to end 2026 with at least 110 GW under contract.

We expect EBITDA losses to be between $200 million and $300 million.

We also expect strong year-over-year EBITDA margin expansion from higher volume, productivity, and favorable price with a margin rate modestly above 1Q 2026 levels.

We also anticipate 15%-17% revenue growth driven by both higher equipment and services and EBITDA margin of approximately 17%-18% as volume, price, and productivity should more than offset inflation as well as additional expenses to support capacity and R&D investments.

For the second quarter of 2026, based on our expectations for the segments as outlined, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

We also expect to deliver positive free cash flow in 2Q 2026, given our ongoing focus on aligning the timing of inflows and outflows, along with the impact of down payments, which correlate with the timing of orders.

We still expect EBIT losses to be approximately $400 million in 2026, as improvement in onshore wind services and offshore wind offset the lower onshore equipment volume.

On pricing, we expect our orders in the first half of 2026 to be priced 10-20 points higher than our 4Q 2025 orders on $1 per kW basis.

Second quarter Electrification revenues should be between $3.3 billion and $3.5 billion, a significant year-over-year increase.

We continue to expect Prolec to contribute approximately $3 billion of revenue this year.

We also anticipate 15%-17% revenue growth driven by both higher equipment and services and EBITDA margin of approximately 17%-18% as volume, price, and productivity should more than offset inflation as well as additional expenses to support capacity and R&D investments.

For 2Q 2026, we anticipate wind revenue to decline at a mid-teens rate year-over-year due to lower onshore equipment deliveries.

For the second quarter of 2026, based on our expectations for the segments as outlined, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

Our total number of tariffs last year, we said, was about a net of $250 million impact on the company. We guided to $250 million-$350 million net impact on the company in 2026.

“Reflecting this strength, we now expect to reach at least 110 GW of combined gas turbine backlog and slot reservation agreements by year-end 2026 and are raising our 2026 financial guidance.

This brings our expected cumulative CapEx and R&D investments through this period to approximately $11 billion.

We expect EBITDA losses to be between $300 million and $400 million, down year-over-year, primarily as a result of lower onshore equipment volume, as well as the approximately $70 million impact of tariffs that started in 2Q of last year.

We now project at least $56 billion of total revenue by 2028, up from $52 billion, implying a low teens growth CAGR through 2028, and we still expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA margins of 20%.

At Electrification, by incorporating Prolec GE into our 28 by 2028 outlook, we now expect approximately $4 billion of incremental revenue on top of high teens organic growth, and we maintain expectations for 22% EBITDA margins.

We expect continued strong EBITDA margin expansion to 16%-17% from volume, price, and productivity.

We expect EBITDA margin of approximately 14%-15%, as volume, price, and productivity should more than offset additional expenses to support capacity and R&D investments, as well as inflation.

For the first quarter of 2026, based on our expectations for the segments as already outlined, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

We're increasing our cumulative GE Vernova free cash flow generation from 2025 to 2028 by approximately $2 billion to at least $24 billion, which incorporates nearly $1 billion of incremental CapEx from Prolec GE to support increased transformer production.

At Electrification, by incorporating Prolec GE into our 28 by 2028 outlook, we now expect approximately $4 billion of incremental revenue on top of high teens organic growth, and we maintain expectations for 22% EBITDA margins.

In electrification, we now anticipate revenue to be between $13.5 billion and $14 billion, which represents 20% organic growth, plus approximately $3 billion of revenue from Prolec GE.

We now project at least $56 billion of total revenue by 2028, up from $52 billion, implying a low teens growth CAGR through 2028, and we still expect to achieve adjusted EBITDA margins of 20%.

First quarter electrification revenues should be similar to the fourth quarter of 2025, as we include Prolec GE, resulting in a significant year-over-year increase.

Looking to the first quarter of 2026 at Power, we expect continued year-over-year growth in gas equipment orders. We also anticipate high single-digit revenue growth, driven by both higher equipment and services.

For first quarter 2026, we anticipate wind revenue to decline at high teens rate year-over-year due to lower onshore equipment deliveries.

For the first quarter of 2026, based on our expectations for the segments as already outlined, we expect continued year-over-year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

Power: High-teens organic revenue* growth CAGR and segment EBITDA margin of 22%.

Wind: Down low-double digits organic revenue* CAGR and segment EBITDA margin of 6%.

Electrification: High-teens organic revenue* growth CAGR, in addition to approximately $4 billion of revenue from Prolec GE, and segment EBITDA margin of 22%.

Power: High-teens organic revenue* growth CAGR and segment EBITDA margin of 22%.

Wind: Down low-double digits organic revenue* CAGR and segment EBITDA margin of 6%.

For GE Vernova’s outlook by 2028, the company now expects revenue of $56 billion, up from $52 billion, with low-teens2 organic growth, adjusted EBITDA margin* of 20%, and cumulative free cash flow* of at least $24 billion, up from at least $22 billion.

Funded $0.4 billion in research and development (R&D) spending, to advance breakthrough energy transition technologies, as part of its commitment to invest $5 billion in R&D from 2025 through 2028.

Electrification: High-teens organic revenue* growth CAGR, in addition to approximately $4 billion of revenue from Prolec GE, and segment EBITDA margin of 22%.

After this, we still expect over $10 billion of incremental capital to deploy by 2028.

We now expect to approach 70 GW of contractual gas power commitments by the end of 2025, with significant momentum into 2026.

In summary, we expect to realize $60 million-$120 million of annualized cost synergies by 2028.

During the same timeframe, Prolec should see robust EBITDA growth to over $1 billion in 2028 before incorporating anticipated cost and revenue synergies.

As a result, we expect wind EBITDA losses of approximately $400 million.

For the fourth quarter, we expect growth in adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and positive free cash flow.

For revenue, we continue to trend towards the higher end of our $36 billion-$37 billion guidance range, and we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the range of 8%-9%.

Given the higher revenue growth, we now expect Electrification EBITDA margin to be in the range of 14%-15%, raising the lower end of the prior guidance.

We also still expect EBITDA margin to be in the range of 14% and 15%.

We expect Prolec to generate $3 billion in revenue this year at strong EBITDA margins of 25%, making this a margin-accretive business to GE Vernova overall.

For the fourth quarter, we expect growth in adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and positive free cash flow.

In addition, we anticipate our full-year free cash flow guidance to be in the range of $3 billion-$3.5 billion.

For the fourth quarter, we expect growth in adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, and positive free cash flow.

We include our 50% share of equity income in GE Vernova's adjusted EBITDA. Consolidating Prolec will add an incremental $800 million for GE Vernova in 2028.

For the full year, we now expect Electrification organic revenue growth to trend towards 25% compared to our previous expectation of approximately 20%, as we're achieving better than anticipated output on our capacity expansion.

For the full year 2025, we continue to expect organic revenue growth at Power to be between 6% and 7%.

For the full year 2025, we now anticipate wind revenue to be down high single digits organically compared to our previous expectation of down mid-single digits due to the softness in Onshore equipment orders continuing through the year.

We expect Prolec to generate $3 billion in revenue this year at strong EBITDA margins of 25%, making this a margin-accretive business to GE Vernova overall.

We expect low double-digit revenue growth driven by volume and pricing, with revenue increasing from $3 billion this year to over $4 billion in 2028.

For revenue, we continue to trend towards the higher end of our $36 billion-$37 billion guidance range, and we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the range of 8%-9%.

Fourth-quarter revenue may be slightly lower year-over-year, primarily due to the improved linearity of gas turbine deliveries through 2025 compared to 2024, as well as continued softness in Onshore Wind, mostly offset by continued strong volume growth at Electrification.

Our 2025 guidance also includes the impact of tariffs, as currently outlined, which we estimate to be trending towards the lower end of our $300 million-$400 million range net of mitigating actions.