CSX Corporation (CSX) official guidance

Our outlook for capital expenditures remains below $2.4 billion, and we expect free cash flow growth of more than 80%.

Our outlook for capital expenditures remains below $2.4 billion, and we expect free cash flow growth of more than 80%.

Labor expense will have the typical sequential increase in the fourth quarter, but reported headcount will be lower due to temporary seasonal reductions.

First quarter 2027 headcount will be similar to current levels as these employees return to work and we build our conductor trainee pipeline to start the year.

Labor expense will have the typical sequential increase in the fourth quarter, but reported headcount will be lower due to temporary seasonal reductions.

Overall, and consistent with past years, we would expect some step-up sequentially in the fourth quarter expense line as we enter the winter months.

I am confident that we will achieve full-year operating margin expansion of more than 350 basis points.

While fuel volatility can create some near-term noise, we expect to deliver year-over-year margin improvement above 350 basis points in the fourth quarter.

Looking to the fourth quarter on a sequential basis, we expect a normal seasonal increase in PS&O combined with typical weather-related reduction in fuel efficiency.

We now expect revenue growth in the high single digits compared to the mid to high single-digit range we provided previously.

We expect another small sequential RPU increase in the fourth quarter from the lagged effects of these higher benchmarks.

We still expect for this year our same store sales pricing to be stronger than it was last year.

Moving to the third quarter, incentive compensation expense will step lower sequentially, largely offset by the 3.75% union wage increase.

For the full year, we expect approximately 100 projects to enter service.

Depreciation expense will be relatively stable year-over-year as normal increases to the asset base are offset by favorable results from an equipment life study, asset retirements, and targeted reductions to technology and aviation assets.

Next year, you'll see another wage increase in the 3.75% range.

So overall, I would look at inflation probably being in that 3%-3.5% range.

As we look at what we have in the plan for 2026 versus 2025, price yield will be higher in 2026 over 2025 than it was in 2025 over 2024.

So at this point, we'd say really modest volume growth next year.

CSX has a strong operational foundation, and we are positioned to deliver improved financial performance in 2026 as we focus on driving productivity, cost control, and capital discipline while continuing to provide safe and reliable service.