ConocoPhillips (COP) official guidance

We currently expect sort of this to close, the Iraq transaction with Kirkuk around year-end, and we expect the acquisition capital to be in the $300 million-$500 million at close.

Our free cash flow breakevens move from the mid-40s WTI today to the low 30s by 2029.

We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, effectively doubling last year's total free cash flow.

For third quarter production, our guidance range is 2,290,000 bpd-2,320,000 bpd.

For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our Chief Financial Officer to shareholders this year.

For capital spending, we're updating our guidance to a range of $12 billion-$12.5 billion versus our prior guidance of about $12 billion, representing a 2% increase at the midpoint.

We remain confident in realizing the full $1 billion run rate by year-end.

We will continue delivering base dividend growth competitive with the top quartile of the S&P 500.

Moving to operating costs, full-year guidance of $10.2 billion is unchanged, reflecting a $400 million reduction from 2025 due to the benefits of our cost reduction and margin enhancement program.

For production, the midpoint of our annual guidance is updated to 2,310,000 BOE per day.

The midpoint of our second quarter production guidance is 2,200,000 BOE per day, which reflects the full exclusion of Qatar production from guidance for the quarter, the Surmont royalty rate adjustment, and planned second quarter maintenance.

As Ryan said, we continue to expect a significant reduction in both our capital spend and our operating costs, combining to drive a year-on-year improvement of about $1 billion.

If you look ahead to 2026, we expect consistent strong performance across all of our basins, like we've demonstrated over the past several years. And this is a key driver in our ability to deliver low single digit growth in the Lower 48, alongside a reduction of more than 5% in capital compared to 2025.

Top-quartile dividend growth is sustainable, as we expect our free cash flow breakeven to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of this decade.

We anticipate realizing approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow each year from 2026 through 2028, with another $4 billion from Willow coming online in 2029, and that's a growth profile that's unmatched in our industry.

We anticipate realizing approximately $1 billion of incremental free cash flow each year from 2026 through 2028, with another $4 billion from Willow coming online in 2029, and that's a growth profile that's unmatched in our industry.

First quarter production is expected to be in the range of 2.3 million-2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, including the estimated impacts of weather-related downtime from Winter Storm Fern.

If you look ahead to 2026, we expect consistent strong performance across all of our basins, like we've demonstrated over the past several years. And this is a key driver in our ability to deliver low single digit growth in the Lower 48, alongside a reduction of more than 5% in capital compared to 2025.

Closed $3.2 billion in dispositions in 2025 and on track to meet $5 billion total disposition target by year-end 2026.

Depreciation, depletion and amortization is expected to be $11.7 to $11.9 billion and adjusted corporate and other segment net loss is expected to be approximately $0.9 billion.

Depreciation, depletion and amortization is expected to be $11.7 to $11.9 billion and adjusted corporate and other segment net loss is expected to be approximately $0.9 billion.

Guidance for 2026 includes capital expenditures of approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion, consistent with preliminary guidance issued last quarter.

We're also making great progress on our asset sales program, with another $500 million on top of what we announced last quarter. That takes us up to over $3 billion of asset sales out of our $5 billion target.

Of this amount, $1.6 billion was closed and the cash was received through the third quarter, and we have another $1.5 billion that will have closed in the fourth quarter.

Approximately $800 million of project capital remains, averaging just north of $250 million spent annually, with a declining trend from 2026 to 2028.

More specifically, 2025 Willow project capital is forecast to be just north of $2 billion.

At the Willow Project in Alaska, after completing our largest winter construction season and conducting a comprehensive project review, we have increased our project capital estimate to $8.5 billion-$9 billion. This change is primarily attributable to higher-than-expected general inflation and localized North Slope cost escalation. Despite cost pressures, we have maintained the project schedule and made excellent progress on scope execution, narrowing first oil to early 2029.

Approximately $800 million of project capital remains, averaging just north of $250 million spent annually, with a declining trend from 2026 to 2028.

We plan to reduce capital to around $1.7 billion a year from 2026 through 2028.

After achieving first oil, ongoing development capital will decline to about $500 million a year for several years.

Bottom line, using 2025 consensus as a baseline, this translates to a double-digit free cash flow growth CAGR through 2028 before another material step up in 2029, which will approximately double our 2025 free cash flow.

Bottom line, using 2025 consensus as a baseline, this translates to a double-digit free cash flow growth CAGR through 2028 before another material step up in 2029, which will approximately double our 2025 free cash flow.

In terms of the timing of that $7 billion, we expect to realize about $1 billion of improvement each year from 2026 through 2028, amounting to $3 billion of free cash flow improvement by 2028.

And then specifically to Lower 48, we're guiding about 50% for the Lower 48.

We're reducing our operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion, down from the prior guidance midpoint of $10.8 billion and our initial guidance at the beginning of the year of $11 billion.

Turning to our outlook for 2025, we've raised our full-year production guidance to 2,375,000 BOED, up 15,000 from our prior guidance midpoint.

We expect to deliver flat to 2% underlying growth in 2026, a reasonable planning assumption considering the ongoing macro volatility.

Full-year adjusted operating cost guidance is lowered to $10.6 billion versus prior guidance of $10.7 to $10.9 billion.

Fourth-quarter 2025 production is expected to be 2.30 to 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED).