Chipotle (CMG) official guidance

For Q4, we expect G&A to be around $189 million on a non-GAAP basis, which will include $156 million in underlying G&A, $31 million in non-cash stock compensation, although this amount could move up or down based on our actual performance, and $2 million in higher bonus accruals and payroll taxes.

On an underlying basis, this puts cost of sales inflation at around 3% for Q4.

For Q4, we anticipate cost of sales to be around 30.5%, primarily due to the impact of our Smoked Brisket limited time offer.

Depreciation for the quarter was $103 million, or 3.1% of sales. In Q4, we expect it to remain in the low 3% range.

For fiscal 2026, we continue to expect our underlying effective tax rate to be in the 24%-26% range, though it may vary based on discrete items.

For Q4, we expect G&A to be around $189 million on a non-GAAP basis, which will include $156 million in underlying G&A, $31 million in non-cash stock compensation, although this amount could move up or down based on our actual performance, and $2 million in higher bonus accruals and payroll taxes.

Excluding these discrete impacts, we saw underlying inflation in the low single-digit range, and we expect this to continue into Q4 with labor costs around 26%.

As Scott said earlier, we are somewhere in that low 3% range or around 3% for next year, but we will ebb and flow that as we see fit, whether it aligns with what we are doing from a TV standpoint or from a big advertising standpoint around when certain LTOs drop, or different investments that we want to make that we believe we can get a great return from.

In support of the brisket campaign in Q4, we expect marketing costs to land in the high 3% range, bringing other operating costs to around 16%.

But taking a step back and really thinking about margins in total, that will get you, based off of our guidance, it will get you to about a 2026 margin of somewhere in that like mid 23% range.

So when you are thinking about 2027, I would consider that 23.5% plus that 100 basis points. So call it a mid 24% margin as kind of the baseline, assuming that we are able to utilize price to offset inflation and then drive at least a point of trans to offset the impact of our NROs next year.

Altogether, this will put Q4 margins at just under 22%, which is roughly 150 basis points lower than last year.

However, we continue to see positive underlying engagement with our menu innovation and activations. We look forward to building momentum with the launch of Smoked Brisket next week, and we are confident we will deliver on our guidance of low single-digit comps for 2026.

In support of the brisket campaign in Q4, we expect marketing costs to land in the high 3% range, bringing other operating costs to around 16%.

As we look ahead to 2027, we currently anticipate overall inflation to remain in the low to mid-single digit range and expect to continue managing that inflation over the long run with our new approach to menu pricing.

We anticipate it will increase to about 3% in Q4, bringing total pricing in 2026 to around 2%.

We anticipate it will increase to about 3% in Q4, bringing total pricing in 2026 to around 2%.

HEEP is now installed in over 1,700 restaurants, and we continue to work toward approximately 2,000 restaurants by year-end.

We continue to see significant white space in both countries and remain confident that we will open around 350 restaurants this year.

In 2027, we expect to open around 15-25 restaurants outside the U.S. and Canada.