Ciena (CIEN) official guidance

Given the acceleration and projected increase in the compounding waves of spend on network infrastructure across these markets, we continue to believe that the total addressable market for our business will effectively double over the next three years, growing from approximately $25 billion today to approximately $50 billion by 2029.

As a result, we are currently projecting to exit fiscal 2026 with over $10 billion in backlog.

We also expect backlog to grow at an even greater rate in Q4.

We expect adjusted gross margins of 45% ±50 basis points, bringing the year to a similar range, a raise of 50 basis points from last quarter.

We expect adjusted gross margins of 45% ±50 basis points, bringing the year to a similar range, a raise of 50 basis points from last quarter.

We expect gross margins to be at least between 45% and 46%.

With this revenue guide, we expect to increase our market share in the combined optical systems and plug market by about 4 points to approximately 30%.

As a result, we expect to see a reduction in cash from operations in Q4 as investments are dispersed to support these agreements.

Adjusted operating expense will be roughly $415 million ±$10 million, with our annual OpEx at $1.6 billion, slightly down from the June guide.

Adjusted operating expense will be roughly $415 million ±$10 million, with our annual OpEx at $1.6 billion, slightly down from the June guide.

All told, we expect to drive an adjusted operating margin of approximately 20% ±50 basis points, bringing the full year to between 20% and 21% and exceeding the 20% annual figure for the first time in the company's history.

And we expect to achieve fiscal 2027 adjusted operating margin between 25% and 27%, posting yet another record in profitability and serving as yet another proof point for the earnings potential of Ciena's model.

All told, we expect to drive an adjusted operating margin of approximately 20% ±50 basis points, bringing the full year to between 20% and 21% and exceeding the 20% annual figure for the first time in the company's history.

That ramp in 2027 will be to several hundred million dollars.

In Q4 2026, we expect to deliver revenue of $1.75 billion ±$50 million, raising the full year midpoint to $6.42 billion, up $120 million from last quarter.

As we see it today, we expect to deliver another record year with revenue growing a minimum of 30% year-on-year, yielding at least $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion in revenue with supply-driven upsides.

In Q4 2026, we expect to deliver revenue of $1.75 billion ±$50 million, raising the full year midpoint to $6.42 billion, up $120 million from last quarter.

We think, again, it's very early days, but maybe $1 billion-$3 billion by the time we get to 2029 is the total TAM. This is a very important part of the inside the data center strategy for Ciena.

We remain on track to spend $250 million-$275 million with CapEx.

In Q3 2026, we expect to deliver revenue of approximately $1.625 billion, ±$50 million, and an adjusted gross margin of 45%, ±50 basis points, and adjusted operating expenses of approximately $410 million, ±$10 million, resulting in an operating margin of 19%-20%.