Caterpillar (CAT) official guidance

Just for our reference, we expect 58% of our backlog is expected to be sold within the next 12 months.

Our CapEx spend for 2026 is now anticipated to be about $3.3 billion, which is slightly below our prior expectations of $3.5 billion.

We anticipate the typical seasonal dealer inventory reduction to be roughly $1.6 billion, which compares to the decline of $600 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Our estimated global annual effective tax rate remains approximately 23% for 2026, excluding discrete items.

We're also maintaining our MP&E free cash flow expectations to be in the top half of our annual target range.

Rail services are anticipated to grow for the year, and we now expect locomotive deliveries to be slightly lower year-over-year due to timing of deliveries.

Excluding the favorable impact from IEEPA tariff recoveries, we continue to expect full year adjusted operating profit margin to be near the bottom of the target range.

At the enterprise level, we expect higher adjusted operating profit margin versus the prior year.

In Construction Industries, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year, primarily due to the favorable price realization, which is partially offset by lower sales volume.

In Power & Energy, we anticipate favorable price realization and stronger volume to drive a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year.

In Resource Industries, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year, driven by favorable price realization and the profit impact of higher sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, including freight and material.

Rail services are anticipated to grow for the year, and we now expect locomotive deliveries to be slightly lower year-over-year due to timing of deliveries.

We continue to expect rebuild activity to increase moderately compared with last year.

We now expect restructuring costs of about $300 million in 2026, which is on the low end of our prior range.

In China, we anticipate moderate conditions with full-year growth in the above 10-ton excavator industry off low levels of activity.

For Construction Industries, we expect strong fourth quarter and full-year sales to users growth supported by healthy end markets.

Demand for products in industrial applications is expected to grow moderately in 2026 as well.

Volume growth is expected to be driven by continued strength in power generation, modest growth in oil and gas, and moderate growth in industrial applications as it continues to recover.

After a record year for sales in 2025, oil and gas is expected to grow moderately again this year.

Volume growth is expected to be driven by continued strength in power generation, modest growth in oil and gas, and moderate growth in industrial applications as it continues to recover.