Caterpillar (CAT) official guidance

Currently, 59% of our $72 billion backlog is expected to be delivered over the next 12 months.

Our CapEx spend for 2026 is anticipated to be approximately $3.5 billion, similar to our previous expectations.

We expect a slight increase in dealer inventory in the third quarter, but modestly lower than last year.

Our estimated global annual effective tax rate remains approximately 23% for 2026, excluding discrete items.

With the improved sales and revenues and adjusted operating margin outlook, we now expect MP&E free cash flow to be in the top half of our annual target range of $6 billion-$15 billion.

We expect second half MP&E free cash flow to be slightly higher than the first half, despite higher CapEx spend.

Excluding the favorable impact from IEEPA tariff recoveries in the second quarter, we expect full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be near the bottom of the target range.

We expect higher adjusted operating profit margin at the enterprise level versus the prior year, primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume, partially offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs, including depreciation expense and freight, along with higher SG&A and R&D expenses due to the continued investment in strategic investments aligned with our 2030 goals that we rolled out at last year's Investor Day.

In Construction Industries, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year, primarily due to favorable price realization and higher sales volume.

In Power & Energy, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year on stronger volume and favorable price realization.

In Resource Industries, we anticipate a similar margin percentage compared to the prior year due to higher sales volume and favorable price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, including tariff costs and SG&A and R&D expenses.

Rail services and locomotive deliveries are both anticipated to grow for the year.

We continue to expect restructuring costs of approximately $300 million-$350 million in 2026.

In China, we anticipate moderate conditions with full-year growth in the above 10-ton excavator industry off of low levels of activity.

For Construction Industries, we continue to expect full-year sales to users growth supported by strong order rates.

In Construction Industries, we expect strong sales growth in the third quarter versus the prior year, mainly due to higher sales volume on strong sales to users and favorable price realization.

Demand for products in industrial applications is expected to grow moderately in 2026.

We expect full-year growth in Latin America.

Overall, the outlook for North America remains positive as sales to users are anticipated to grow versus last year.

After a record year for sales in 2025, oil and gas is expected to grow moderately again this year.

If we look at the segments, we anticipate strong sales growth in Power & Energy in the third quarter versus the prior year, driven by continued strength in power generation and in oil and gas, modest growth in industrial applications as it continues to recover, and favorable price realization.

We continue to anticipate full-year growth in power generation for both Cat reciprocating engines and Solar Turbines, driven by increasing energy demand to support data center build-out related to cloud computing and generative AI.

For 2026, sales to users are expected to increase, primarily driven by rising demand for copper and gold and positive dynamics in heavy construction in quarry and aggregates.

In Resource Industries, we also expect strong sales growth in the third quarter versus the prior year, primarily due to higher sales to users and services growth.

Services revenues are also expected to grow at a higher rate for the full year compared to our previous outlook.

We are increasing our full-year 2026 sales and revenues expectations to mid to high teens growth based on the healthy demand we are seeing across all three of our primary segments.

Based on what we see today for the third quarter, we anticipate another strong quarter of sales growth versus the prior year.

We expect about 50% of the tariffs to be incurred in Construction Industries and 25% in both Power & Energy and Resource Industries.

We expect about 50% of the tariffs to be incurred in Construction Industries and 25% in both Power & Energy and Resource Industries.

We expect about 50% of the tariffs to be incurred in Construction Industries and 25% in both Power & Energy and Resource Industries.

Excluding the expected IEEPA tariff recoveries of approximately $400 million reported in the second quarter, we now expect full-year 2026 tariff costs of around $2.2 billion, or at the low end of the range we previously provided.

We anticipate tariff costs of around $600 million, which is similar to what we incurred in the third quarter of 2025.

We now anticipate MP&E CapEx spend to average approximately 4%-5% of MP&E sales through 2030.

We anticipate volume growth will be driven by a higher growth rate in sales to users compared to the first quarter, with a minimal change in Construction Industries during dealer inventory.

In Construction Industries, including tariffs, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year on stronger volume and price, particularly offset by higher manufacturing costs, primarily driven by tariffs and SG&A and R&D expense.

In Power and Energy, including tariffs, we anticipate a slightly higher margin % compared to the prior year on stronger volume and favorable price realization.

In Resource Industries, including and excluding tariff costs, we anticipate a lower margin percentage compared to the prior year due to higher manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses.

The target for power generation sales has increased to more than 3x sales by 2030 from a 2024 baseline.

We expect strong sales growth in Construction Industries in the second quarter versus the prior year, mainly due to strong sales to users supported by the backlog and favorable price realization.

We anticipate strong sales growth in Power and Energy in the second quarter versus the prior year, driven by continued strength in power generation and in oil and gas and favorable price realization.

In Resource Industries, we also expect strong sales growth versus the prior year, primarily due to higher sales to users.

We now expect the compound annual growth rate for total enterprise sales and revenues to be between 6% and 9% from 2024 to 2030.

Based on what we see today for the 2nd quarter, we anticipate another quarter of strong sales growth versus the prior year.

We anticipate tariff costs of around $700 million.

As a result, approximately 62% of our backlog is expected to deliver in the next 12 months, which is lower than our historical average.

We expect a more typical machine dealer inventory build this quarter, aligning with a seasonal pattern, which is a first quarter build in excess of $1 billion.

Construction Industries, excluding incremental tariff costs, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year on favorable price realization and volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs.

In Power and Energy, excluding incremental tariff costs, we anticipate a higher margin percentage compared to the prior year, driven by favorable volume and price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs, particularly spend, including higher depreciation related to our capacity expansion projects.

In Resource Industries, excluding incremental tariff costs, we anticipate slightly lower margin percentage compared to the prior year, as favorable volume is more than offset by unfavorable manufacturing costs and higher SG&A and R&D expenses, including spend on strategic investments in autonomy.

Excluding incremental tariff costs, we expect a higher adjusted operating profit margin percentage year-over-year, supported by strong volume and price realization, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs and SG&A and R&D expenses tied to our strategic investments.

We also expect all three segments to benefit from positive price realization, about 2% of total sales and revenues, and continued growth in services revenues.

Starting with the top line, we would expect stronger sales and revenues versus the prior year.

During the first quarter, we anticipate around 50% of the incremental tariff costs will be Construction Industries, 20% in Resource Industries, and 30% in Power and Energy.

During the first quarter, we anticipate around 50% of the incremental tariff costs will be Construction Industries, 20% in Resource Industries, and 30% in Power and Energy.

During the first quarter, we anticipate around 50% of the incremental tariff costs will be Construction Industries, 20% in Resource Industries, and 30% in Power and Energy.

We expect incremental tariff costs of around $800 million in the first quarter, a level similar to the fourth quarter of 2025.

We continue to anticipate CapEx spend of around $2.5 billion this year.

On taxes, as I mentioned, we now anticipate our 2025 global annual effective tax rate to be 24%, excluding discrete items.

We also expect ME&T free cash flow to be above the midpoint of the $5 billion to $10 billion target range.

Including the net impact from incremental tariffs, we expect full year adjusted operating profit margin to be near the bottom of the target range, corresponding to our current expectation for full year sales and revenues.

When taking into account the net impact from incremental tariffs, we expect fourth quarter enterprise adjusted operating profit margin to be lower versus the prior year.

We also expect the year-over-year impact of price realization to be about flat in the fourth quarter.

We continue to expect restructuring costs of approximately $300 million to $350 million this year.

In Asia Pacific, we anticipate full year sales to users to be about flat.

We continue to anticipate full year growth in Construction Industries sales to users despite softness in the global industry.

Full year dealer rental revenues are also expected to grow, and we anticipate dealer rental fleet loading will increase in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year.

In EAME, we expect growth for the year, driven by healthy construction activity in Africa and the Middle East and improving economic conditions in Europe.

With ongoing weaker construction activity in Latin America, we now expect to be about flat for the full year.

We continue to expect full year growth for sales to users.

In oil and gas, we expect moderate growth in 2025.

And finally, in Energy & Transportation, we expect strong growth in full year sales for power generation compared to last year.

We anticipate lower sales to users in 2025 compared to last year as customers continue to display capital discipline.

We continue to expect full year services revenues to be about flat versus 2024.

Transportation is expected to remain stable.

Given the strength of our three -- across our three primary segments, we now expect full year 2025 sales and revenues to be higher than we previously anticipated, resulting in modest growth versus 2024.

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate strong sales growth versus the prior year.

Based on the incremental tariffs announced in 2025 and expected to be in place by November 1, we expect the full year net impact from tariffs to be between $1.6 billion and $1.75 billion.