Brown & Brown (BRO) official guidance

From a pricing standpoint, we expect rate changes for most admitted lines for the fourth quarter to remain consistent with the third quarter, with the potential for some continued slight moderation.

We would normally anticipate that our conversion ratio on a normal basis is kind of that 24%-26% of revenues. That will continue. We will keep heading back towards that range as the interest income comes down, but we would expect that ratio from where we are this year to increase a little bit next year, expecting good cash flow.

We anticipate continued strong cash generation in the fourth quarter and will balance our deployment of capital between hiring people to help us grow organically, share repurchases, de-leveraging, and M&A.

In the E&S market, we're looking at it from three perspectives. First, we expect casualty rates to continue increasing.

There is a feeling out there that property rates CAT property rates will be somewhere between 10% and 20% down in the industry. I would tell you, if you ask me right now, that I think it's on the high end of that.

Second, we expect CAT property rates will remain down in the fourth quarter.

As it relates to 2027, still getting our arms around those as we're working through the projections. Probably would anticipate some downward pressure in 2027 on contingents in specialty distribution.

Taking into consideration accrual adjustments in the fourth quarter of last year and anticipated adjustments in the fourth quarter of this year, we are anticipating our year-over-year contingent commissions for Specialty Distribution to decrease $14 million-$16 million in the fourth quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

As it relates to the fourth quarter, if you take into consideration our commentary on revenue guidance as well as contingents, we would expect the margins will be down in the fourth quarter compared to last year.

Based on the efforts of our teammates, we are increasing our full-year 2026 expected benefit to approximately $50 million.

We are now targeting run rate net EBITDAC synergies of $175 million by the end of 2028, up from the $150 million previously anticipated.

For the Retail segment, we are projecting organic growth in the range of 2%-4% and 1%-3% for Specialty Distribution segment.

Regarding outlook and taking into consideration the improvement we have delivered over the past couple quarters, we are now anticipating Retail's organic growth, excluding contingents, to be in the range of 2%-3% for the fourth quarter.

For the Retail segment, we are projecting organic growth in the range of 2%-4% and 1%-3% for Specialty Distribution segment.

For Specialty Distribution, based on our earlier comments regarding market headwinds, as well as the incremental negative impact of certain non-recurring and timing-related items of $8 million-$12 million, we are anticipating organic growth, excluding contingents, to decline 2%-4% in the fourth quarter.

We continue to anticipate strong cash generation for the remainder of the year and will balance our deployment of capital between hiring people to help us grow organically, share repurchases, de-leveraging, and M&A.

E&S rates are expected to remain bifurcated, excess casualty continue to increase, CAT property will decrease at rates similar to the first half of the year.

We are anticipating retail's organic growth, excluding contingents, to be in the range of 1.5%-2.5%, and organic growth for specialty distribution to be in the range of 2%-4%, excluding contingent commissions.

We are anticipating retail's organic growth, excluding contingents, to be in the range of 1.5%-2.5%, and organic growth for specialty distribution to be in the range of 2%-4%, excluding contingent commissions.

Based on currently available information, we anticipate the full year 2026 revenue impact related to new and lost business, as well as incentives, to be in the range of $50 million-$60 million.