Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) official guidance

I think Q3 specifically as it relates to NII and deposits year-over-year will be a tough comp because we expect a seasonally slow quarter due to the seasonal slowdown.

For the sake of completeness, we continue to expect a quarterly tax rate of approximately 23% for the remaining two quarters this year.

I think Q3 specifically as it relates to NII and deposits year-over-year will be a tough comp because we expect a seasonally slow quarter due to the seasonal slowdown.

That includes our current expectation for full year 2026 net interest income to be up 12%-13% year-over-year.

Accordingly, we now expect expenses excluding notable items for the year to be up 6%-7% year-over-year, primarily reflecting higher revenue-related expenses.

Taken together, that means we now expect to deliver approximately 400 basis points of positive operating leverage in 2026.

With that, we are increasing our outlook for total revenue, excluding notable items in 2026 to up 10%-11% year-over-year.

Over the balance of the year, we expect balances to be modestly higher relative to 2025.

We expect Q2 to be slightly down from Q1.

We continue to expect a quarterly tax rate of approximately 23% for the remaining quarters this year.

So I'm not too sure what your definition of significant is, but I would expect over the course of 2026 for NIM to grind higher from where it is today.

This reflects our current expectation for total revenue, excluding notable items, to grow by approximately 5% year over year in 2026, market dependent, and accordingly, a plan for approximately 3%-4% growth in expenses, excluding notable items.

We currently project our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be approximately 21%, which would bring our effective tax rate for the full year into a range of 21%-22%.

We currently project our effective tax rate for the fourth quarter to be approximately 21%, which would bring our effective tax rate for the full year into a range of 21%-22%.

On the back of a strong third quarter, we expect net interest income in the fourth quarter to be approximately flat sequentially, which would ultimately result in full year 2025 net interest income to be up 12% year-over-ear.

On the back of a strong third quarter, we expect net interest income in the fourth quarter to be approximately flat sequentially, which would ultimately result in full year 2025 net interest income to be up 12% year-over-ear.

Q3 kind of being a seasonally quieter business. When we take a step back and we think about Pershing, and it's a $3 trillion AUM business within the wealth tech sector space, you see new entrants into it, and we like competition. The fact that new entrants are coming in kind of allows us to show what we have to offer clients. We're excited about the business. We're excited about the growth potential. We're now with the deconversion behind us, and we expect growth in net new assets to re-accelerate for the balance of the year.

We continue to expect expenses, excluding notable items, for the full year to be up approximately 3% year-over-year.

Finally, we expect to continue returning capital at a pace that is consistent with the total payout ratio of 90%-100% for the full year 2025.