Axon Enterprise (AXON) official guidance

We expect body camera shipments to be up 20%-30% sequentially in Q3 and 15%-20% quarter-over-quarter.

As I review the pipeline, I see a clear line of sight to finishing the year in the 30% range of normalized bookings.

We continue to expect full-year adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.

We expect Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin to reflect the impact of those memory costs with no benefit from tariff refunds before we scale margins back in Q4 to these levels to hit our full-year target.

We continue to have line of sight to strong free cash flow generation consistent with our Q1 guidance of $450 million for the full year, with strong seasonality expected in the fourth quarter.

I do think we can still say that our future contracted bookings for the whole year will grow faster than that 30% that we gave for the five-year normalized bookings.

We're raising our full-year revenue guidance to a range of 32%-34%, 200 basis points above our prior range of 30%-32%.

Based on the strong demand pipeline and results in the first half, we expect seasonality similar to last year, where Q4 is our strongest quarter, both in terms of revenue and year-over-year growth.

Even with these investments, we expect free cash flow conversion to improve meaningfully and expect to deliver approximately $450 million of free cash flow for the full year in 2026.

On stock-based compensation, we expect full year of expense of approximately $590 million-$620 million.

Along with this growth, we are targeting a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2028.

We expect to ramp into our average adjusted EBITDA margins as we scale revenue through the year, which may result in lower adjusted EBITDA margins than our annual target in first quarter.

As I mentioned before on free cash flow, we expect average annual conversion of approximately 60% over the longer term and expect to get back close to that level next year.

For our 2028 targets, our 2028 revenue target is approximately $6 billion.

We do expect year-over-year revenue growth to be consistent with our overall guide for the year in first quarter.

Our target model implies we can continue to operate at these levels as we grow and expand margins, maintaining 55% or better.

We are now dropping that to less than 2.5% on a go-forward basis.

We talked about it a little bit. We're expecting a really big bookings quarter in Q4.

Look, we had said last quarter we expect bookings growth to be in the high 30s% year-over-year, and we still believe that to be true, and so you can guess what that means for Q4.

We're on pace for AI bookings to contribute over 10% of U.S. state and local bookings for next year or, sorry, for this year.