Albemarle (ALB) official guidance

To ensure adequate contingency for our downstream operations, we've assumed CGP3 reaches full run rate in the first quarter of 2027.

We are also on track to reach the high end of our $100 to 150 million full-year target for cost and productivity improvements.

On a full year basis, we still expect cash flow to be impacted by $87.5 million of deferred revenue related to our 2025 customer prepayment, which benefits EBITDA but does not contribute cash, and approximately $100 million of spend related to idling Kemerton Train 1.

For the third quarter, net sales and adjusted EBITDA are expected to decrease sequentially due to lower sales volumes and assuming that pricing is lower sequentially for the quarter as it stands today.

As a result, we are increasing our full-year outlook ranges, raising net sales to $1.4 to 1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $275 to 325 million.

As such, we expect third quarter net sales and EBITDA to be lower sequentially.

Additionally, energy storage margins are expected to decrease sequentially due to the timing of spodumene inventories and also assuming that today's pricing continues for the quarter.

On a full year basis, we still expect cash flow to be impacted by $87.5 million of deferred revenue related to our 2025 customer prepayment, which benefits EBITDA but does not contribute cash, and approximately $100 million of spend related to idling Kemerton Train 1.

As a result, we are increasing our full-year outlook ranges, raising net sales to $1.4 to 1.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $275 to 325 million.

For the third quarter, net sales and adjusted EBITDA are expected to decrease sequentially due to lower sales volumes and assuming that pricing is lower sequentially for the quarter as it stands today.

As such, we expect third quarter net sales and EBITDA to be lower sequentially.

For the full year, energy storage sales volumes are now expected to be in the range of 225,000-235,000 tons LCE or flat to down 4% year-over-year.

But if you follow our 15% CAGR volume growth that we've said we're doing from 2022 to 2027, that would put 2027 in the range of 240,000-260,000 tons LCE.

We now expect stationary storage battery production of 900-1,100 gigawatt hours in 2026, up 11% or 100 gigawatt hours from our prior forecast.

We are also raising the low end of our 2030 stationary storage range to between 1,500 and 2,000 gigawatt hours, up approximately 9% from our prior forecast.

We now expect stationary storage to make up about 30% of 2026 global lithium market demand, nearing parity with light-duty EVs.

Our outlook ranges continue to reflect the expected impact of supply chain disruptions related to the situation in the Middle East, which we still estimate at approximately $70 to 90 million on an unmitigated basis for the full year.

As a result of this change, we are also raising the low end of our 2030 forecast for total lithium demand by 100,000 tons.

| Capital expenditures | ~$500 million |

All three scenarios assume flat market pricing flowing through Energy Storage’s current contract book which includes approximately 40% of salts volume (or one-third of total volumes) on long-term agreements.